There are a lot of comparisons to Chalice of the Void being thrown around here. Everyone seems to be taking it as a given that this is playable consistently on Turn 1.
Has anyone run the statistical analysis on this?
To cast this T1, you need an on-color Mox (2), Lotus or Petal + land + Lavinia in your opening hand. This is probably the most common set of accelerants you’ll see in a deck running Lavinia.
What is the statistical probability of this in an opener?
How far are you willing to mulligan to try to land this? 5?
How sure are you that T1 Lavinia is backbreaking enough to win the game?
Sure, Chrome or Diamond are possibilities, but these still seem a stretch. Diamond requires an additional land, so you’re still looking at a specific set of 4 cards (land, land, diamond, Lavinia) in your opening hand to cast it. Chrome is maybe more viable, but you’re going to need to run 4x Chrome to maximize this probability and that just seems bad for later in the game.
Running 4x RG Manamorphose in a deck to cast a UW spell on T1 on off color Moxen? Is this worth it?
People have mentioned being able to reliably cast this off Mox Opal on T1 in PO. What’s the probability of having Lavinia, Opal, land + 2 0cc artifacts for Metalcraft? Is this really viable?