@neo_altoid i don't think the summer factor can be dismissed in tournament attendance in the north east. I have been part of the greater ny area competitive vintage scene on and off for 15+ years and summer is often slow for magic. Perhaps tdg can show a straight line decline in attendance for the past year, I cant say. I would also add that modern is a spectacular format right now, with a diverse metagame and high levels of support from wizards. I know several locals who have put their vintage decks aside to explore modern.
I have less of an issue with the format than others, but if you show up at any given 30-40 man event, you can easily run into dredge, outcome and shops in your first three rounds, and if you are on fair blue.dec, you may end up with three un-interactive rounds through no fault of your own, and i can see where that would be a turn off to burning a beautiful saturday in July at. Comic shop literally sweating it out for a mox and 100 credit for second place.