@wfain

Essentially, I don't think you're changing the matchup, and you're adding a 4th color. The mana in the deck for non-green cards is already not great. You're still losing to exactly the same strategies, and while Pyroblast is tactically a little better, practically it's the same card--unless you're countering a Tinker after they've deployed a lot of mana, it's gonna be the same. (for reference--I've tried the grudge+Pyroblast version. It's still the same issues).

I actually think the matchup isn't unwinnable (it's not good, but it's acceptably bad matchup) if they don't have Tinker+Blightsteel in their deck, since your disruption tends to be more meaningful, as they can't DT their way out of trouble as easily. You're largely cold to fast Blightsteel, and Swords/Path are too conditional to board in for exactly that matchup.

Really, if you want to get to the core of it, it's that to beat Outcome consistently, you either need to have a real wall of disruption which they can't realistically break through (Jeskai), or the ability to clock and disrupt at the same time (Shops, since Mishra's Workshop/Foundry Inspector aren't remotely fair cards). Survival can do this, but you need a pretty good hand to actually both fire Hollow One/Vengevine, and put Null Rod/Thalia in play before you lose. That, I think is a function of the deck's basic functioning, rather than any particular tactical answer.

@chikararyuu said in Survival Salad:

@neo_altoid , what has been your sb plan vs. outcome?

I board in 2x Null Rod (want to have something which is easier to cast on turn 1!), 1x Sylvan Library, and 1x Flusterstorm. I board out 1x Basking rootwalla, 1x Vengevine, and 2x Survival of the Fittest. I could be convinced to play a 2nd copy of Flusterstorm, but the tenor of the matchup seems unlikely to change.

@kaluma

I think Ancient Grudge is largely horrible as a plan, but I'm on 3x Flux against Shops. It just annihilates them, since they can't ever ride one threat to victory against Survival (and the deck is so good at getting the card down, even through Sphere).

Frankly, the only reason not to play the deck at champs is PO (and Dredge, I guess, but that's less problematic), as when i don't play against PO, I have a very high winning percentage. Your PO matchup--doesn't matter if you're on Red or Black--is pretty abysmal. You're just not going to win a lot of matches, unless your opponents are on the UWR planeswalker versions (which have sacrificed a lot f speed for resilience which is irrelevant against Survival) or they have decided to be all in Seat of the Synod (where they lose outright to Stony Silence). I tested a few sets against @diophan and @SamwiseKimchi, and couldn't win games for the life of me.

Really sucks that this deck wasn't solved last year before PO became a deck to beat--I think it would have straight destroyed champs last year.

@chubbyrain said in How do I beat Jeskai:

Based on my experience with the deck, Jeskai and other Xerox decks can be built to beat any deck in the format consistently. What they cannot be built to beat is every in the format (including the mirror).

If the goal is to beat exclusively Jeskai, your strategy should be to align your threats to match up effectively against their answers. For instance, the Jeskai variant with Lightning Bolts, Fiery Confluence, and Snapcaster Mage was built for a Combo, Oath, Control, and Shops heavy metagame. The maindeck burn is never dead as you can use it to close out games, but it matches up poorly against Dredge's SB strategy of Fish Zombies and decks that run 4 toughness, non-artifact creatures (i.e. Eldrazi) or creatures immune to removal (i.e. TNN outta Merfolk). That changes if the deck skews towards White removal and Pyromancers as those are much more effective at combating creatures, but you end up with sub-optimal cards against Oath and Combo, along with a much weaker SB plan against Shops.

</thread>

Basically, Shops and Survival (to a lesser extent) are strategically favored against the Jeskai Strategy. Fast Clock+Spehre Effects+Minimal vulnerability to Mental Misstep/Pyroblast are the keys to beating Jeskai, and they make a high percentage of Jeskai cards irrelevant ("Treasure Cruise!" leads to "you're dead" fairly often in those matchups!). Everything else, it's hoping they have to cast a few cantrips to get to where they need, and that you can kill them in that window.

@nower1990 said in How to beat Paradoxical Outcome:

@moorebrother1 How did it get harder to beat? Compared to when? I haven't seen that many PO lists that deviate very much from the norm.

Compared to the days when people were just jamming 4x Seat of the Synod and Thoughtcast into their deck, is when.

@Nower1990

I've been on and off mainboard Sylvan. It's very good (turn 1 Sylvan->Engine Piece is usually lights out!), but it's not perfect, as it isn't really an engine piece. It's better post board, where you're looking for more key pieces.

Squee helps a lot with Aggressive Bazaaring, and I like 2 in the main (though am going down to 1 for champs testing, as you want a more wide spread of hate pieces).

I would also shy away from cutting Moxen. The strength of the deck is that you cast something dumb on turn 1 when you don't play bazaar, and you ask "do you have it".

Not doing that is a recipe for loss.

What is y'alls plan+sideboard plan for PO? I'm intentionally not providing my list before I get an answer--I'm not hiding, I just want to know outside of the context of what I have. I'm far more interested in "the gameplan" rather than the relative value of particular tactical answers.

I ask because I tested this weekend and it was legit a 70-30 match in favor of PO, which is basically the reason I'm very skeptical of playing Survival at champs (Shops/Jeskai/Garbage matchups are basically even to positive). My basic problem was that you're about a full turn too slow to stop things like Tinker or Mentor from happening, and those were the problems, rather than PO itself.

@13nova said in Is Old School killing paper Vintage?:

There is no 'EV', so travelling to the event, you're not going to win money. (this is actually a pro, as you go with no expectations but to hang out and have a blast.)

I'm going to exactly Eternal Weekend this year with the attitude of "I'm here to win." And given the state of Vintage, I think I'm likely not to do that even there--I'm there to have a good time, play a few good matches, and hang out with a fun crew.

I have no nostalgia for the format, so I don't love Old School (and there's an element of elitism about "only this version is allowed" in the format I don't love), but I would 100% agree I show up to events for the community, and a 5 round goof off win box is probably going to be a lot more fun for me than an entire weekend of Magic. I 100% see where you're coming from. I've dropped from tournaments after winning a match for top 8 because a football game is on, and I felt like I made the +EV play for my life, though not necessarily for my wallet.

I think it's still judges discretion, which was what it was before hand, if unofficially.

For example, this protects against "Fetch, Get Tundra", then, while still shuffling, and literally not having finished resolved the action, saying, "Sorry, fetch Basic Island"

I think the provided examples aren't even the most obvious cases--e.g. "Play Swamp" and put down an Island, and backing up to "Sorry, wrong card", or after some long sequence, opponent says "I'd like to go to attacks," and "sure, oh, sorry, I have effects before you attack" (before the opponent starts tapping creatures, in one mostly complete thought).

I think it's not going to be a functional change, but it is giving Judges leeway within the rules to do common sense decisions.

@thecravenone said in October 1, 2018 Banned and Restricted Annoucement:

Unrestrict Necro you fucking cowards.

I'm 90% you could unrestrict Necro, and the major reaction would be "meh". Maybe Storm becomes a competitor to outcomes in the fast combo deck category, but probably not.

That said, the 10% where it's busted are not a world I want to live in, so it probably deserves to be on the restricted list.