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posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

For decks with access to colored mana I think Engineered Explosives has too many advantages over this land and plays the same role.

I agree this is one of the few ways Shops can deal with Null Rod, but

  • the slowness and dissynergy with Workshop is unfortunate
  • Null Rod is more of a nuisance than a silver bullet against Shops anyway.
posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

It's a fun effect, but textbook win-more. Not sure where this would find a home.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

Notice this Teferi is nuts in Landstill.

  1. Bounces any pesky creatures that your opponent managed to resolve pre-Standstill.
  2. Stops your opponent from cracking Standstill on your EOT, or from countering your counterspells.
  3. Any time you feel like it, bounce Standstill, play out your hand, replay Standstill. Opponent can't take advantage of the window.
posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

I'm replying to the great excitement expressed above at the -2 ability. I never argued that Saheeli is unplayable.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

Hmm the passive effect is clearly playable at two mana, and almost certainly playable at three mana with more flexible color requirements as well.

Being a Planeswalker is a boon in some matchups (the control mirror) and a liability in others (anything creature-based that can go around or through a few Servo tokens, e.g. Shops).

I'm not so convinced about the utility of the activated ability. What exactly are you copying from and to? Copying a tapped Time Vault onto an untapped artifact is game-winning. You can also net 1-2 mana by turning a Mox into something like Mana Vault, Mana Crypt, or Black Lotus. But these seem more like ancillary bonuses than strong reasons to play Saheeli in the first place.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

How much early-Wastelanding is this guy going to stop, though, at the WW price point?

posted in Vintage News read more

@protoaddct

Restricting powder may actually be pointless because people may stop using it all together

You may well be right about that, although it's important to note that Serum Powder is significantly more powerful under the London system than Vancouver, since you can tuck away cards that are crucial to your game plan (dredgers; Bridge from Below; etc) before exiling your hand. It doesn't sound crazy to me that it might be optimal in a post-London world to aggressively mulligan and Powder not just for a Bazaar, but for a Bazaar as well as some supporting cards.

posted in Vintage News read more

Great point! Here are those curves. To keep the plot simple I limited the data to the three most interesting scenarios:

  • the status quo (Vancouver mulligan with no cards restricted)
  • London mulligan with no restrictions
  • London mulligan with Serum Powder restricted
  • London mulligan with Bazaar restricted

0_1552802998233_bazcurves.png

The x-axis is cumulative, i.e., the leftmost column is the probability of finding a Bazaar under any circumstance, the second column is the probability of finding a Bazaar and at least one other card in hand, etc.

One interesting result here is that restricting Serum Powder, and instating the London mulligan, would increase the overall chance of Dredge finding a Bazaar, but decrease the probability of Dredge having three or more non-Bazaar cards left over after mulliganing. Of course, since the London mulligan allows the Dredge pilot to sculpt that hand, having fewer expected total cards in hand at the beginning of the game may not impact the deck's performance much.

posted in Vintage News read more

Here is the additional analysis you asked about in the podcast:

Probabilities of finding a Bazaar under the Vancouver system:

Bazaars\Powders 0 1 4
1 38.58% 41.45% 51.77%
4 86.50% 88.70% 94.18%

For the London system:

Bazaars\Powders 0 1 4
1 58.04% 62.14% 75.52%
4 97.18% 98.08% 99.57%

Methodology: I assumed you

  • keep any hand with at least one Bazaar
  • use Serum Powder whenever you draw it and do not have a Bazaar
  • under the London system, tuck any extra Serum Powders back in your deck before any use of Serum Powder.

Mathematica source code: https://www.dropbox.com/s/np0y0maooxln4cr/mulligan.nb?dl=0

posted in Vintage Community read more

I like the idea of a Grand Experiment, but if we're going to do it, we should go whole hog, and not second-guess ourselves and special-plead why some cards are more dangerous than others. In particular, I'm not convinced these cards are "incredibly obviously detrimental to the game as it relates to the Vintage Format."

Brainstorm: legal in Legacy without issues, was legal in Vintage for a long time without major issues
Chalice of the Void: was legal in Vintage for a long time without major issues
Dig Through Time: "just" a late-game draw spell
Flash: one of many 2-card combos in Vintage
Gitaxian Probe: "free perfection information is bad" is not the same as "incredibly obviously detrimental"
Library of Alexandria: pretty terrible outside of the blue mirror
Memory Jar: only "incredibly obviously" broken in format with unrestricted Tinker
Merchant Scroll: it's not "incredibly obvious" that tutoring up Gush is even all that good in a deck with much stronger Shops decks
Monastery Mentor: not "incredibly obviously detrimental" in a format with stronger Shops and powerful alternative combo engines
Mystical Tutor: slow tutor in a much faster format
Treasure Cruise: "just" a late-game draw spell
Trinisphere: probably very unfun, but not incredibly obviously so in a completely different format

Leaving as "incredibly obviously detrimental" only

Ancestral Recall
Black Lotus
Demonic Tutor
Mana Crypt
Mana Vault
Mind's Desire
Moxen
Sol Ring
Strip Mine
Time Vault
Time Walk
Timetwister
Tinker
Tolarian Academy
Wheel of Fortune
Yawgmoth's Will