Posts made by bactgudz
posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

lol, luckily this doesn’t have to be a ponder vs preordain debate. scry 3 is almost always better than scry 2 and (rearrange the top three or shuffle)...so pick your poison when doing your own heuristic analysis.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@Stormanimagus no I’m saying you put this in your deck because you win 40% of games by casting one or more free super preordains into an always on thassa turn 1 and the other 60% of games you play out with 4 copies of the thassa in you deck, because your deck probably can manipulate copies it doesn’t need to the bottom, shuffle them away, or otherwise make them magically turn into other cards.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@Stormanimagus if you are on the draw, scrying IS putting it into your hand turn one (and it’s a blue card pitching to force that paradoxical). Or if you are on the play with a draw spell or draw land, it is putting it in your hand turn one. I suspect the reason this card will be strong is it’s ability to act like a free preordain. It’s too bad it has to be in a blue deck to replace itself with a playable card or not be dead out of your opener.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@protoaddct
You pose an interesting question...does this increase your chances of being busted, starting with 2 bazaars on turns 1+2? I will study this.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@fsecco
No, those are counts of cards in your deck...
Take the example of having 4 powder and 4 sphixes in your deck. Sphinx does nothing to increase your chance of having bazaar on the play, it only helps you on have it on the draw (or equivalently turn 2 of the play)...so when you have BOTH powder and sphinx in your deck, you need to decide on a mulligan strategy:
-Do I max the prob I have it on the play?
-Or do I max the prob I have it on the draw (or equivalently by turn 2 on the play)
This is why there are two tables.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@fsecco The strategy in the second table is to maximize the probability of having bazaar on the draw (p1). This may be accomplished (and we see it sometimes is in analysis) by lowering your chance of having it in your opener but increasing the chance it is on the top of your deck. For instance. If I have a 6 card hand, 1 powder, 3 sphinxes, do I mull or scry 10?

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

Here is the analysis of Sphinx in Dredge, analytic (not simulated)
p0 below represents prob of having bazaar on the play, p1 on the draw.

Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Play
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.33%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.37%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.41%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.45%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.27%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.31%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.34%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.38%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.05%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.08%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.12%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.15%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.65%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.68%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.7%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.73%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.05%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.07%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.09%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.11%
Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Draw
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.3% p1=88.4%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.09% p1=88.51%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=85.86% p1=88.61%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.16% p1=88.72%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.52% p1=90.33%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.33% p1=90.42%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.41% p1=90.51%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.36% p1=90.61%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.57% p1=92.1%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.54% p1=92.18%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.51% p1=92.26%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.44% p1=92.34%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.47% p1=93.69%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.44% p1=93.76%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.41% p1=93.82%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.37% p1=93.89%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.11% p1=95.08%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.08% p1=95.13%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.06% p1=95.19%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.03% p1=95.24%

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

Seems very promising. Surveil 2 is arguably worth a 2/1 body...and snapping back FOW or Gush now sounds like fun.

posted in Decks read more

If the point of the fast mana is to cast null rod, mox diamond doesn't seem like any more of a nombo than a workshop that becomes useless after casting the rod (I wouldn't think that spyglass and rod are in the deck together for many matchups). Diamond is certainly more useful when you don't have the rod. Diamond also lets you power out stony silence...in fact maybe mox pearl or emerald may be worth considering if you are dedicating those shops slots to powering out rod effects.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

flying Foundry Inspector

posted in Vintage Tournaments read more

A huge congrats. I couldn't have been happier to see Andy's big grin holding that Lotus when I opened up the report article. A very deserved win by a true gentleman.

posted in Art and Collecting read more

Still going on, pain in the butt that I still can't actually play cards. Both my wife and I obtained different 'experts' for appraisals. Most retailers will offer to do an appraisal but for a large Vintage collection you may want to be sure to have someone truly qualified, not just the local MTG shop. I was sure to pick someone I knew had a great reputation and qualifications but I had no personal history with. It's not a fun process and a bit idiotic to be honest; very easy for one side to devolve into trying to pay $x in legal fees to gain $x/2 from the other.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

This qualifies as a legit beast

posted in Art and Collecting read more

And when emotions are involved around custody of the kid, the Meter just runs...rationality is out the window. I mean look you've got a potential variable here that easily has some idiots pulling a number out of there ass close to half a mil and others short changing you at 40k. So even though there are some wicked high priced law firms involved they can spend a few tens of hours on this. I just hope they can agree soon. I thought maybe danial Chang did appraisals but I'm not so sure how I feel about him...never really dealt with him.

posted in Art and Collecting read more

@rikter no it is an 11 year marriage. During that time there was about 4.5 years of magic playing with an amount of spending that can be quantified. And a significant amount of appreciation and trading...so it's a non trivial problem. Some of it is trivial-ish like if I had a beta sea and kept it and it appreciated x$ over 11 years is this mine? What if I started the marriage with a set of FBB tundras and traded them for a beta ruby that's now worth y$....there are a lot of non trivial arguments to be made

posted in Art and Collecting read more

The only thing that pisses me off about the mtg is that it's a social outlet I've been out of for a while and should get back into...but f the collection I don't need it for that

posted in Art and Collecting read more

@joshuabrooks thanks for the thoughts. I'm not emotional about it beyond anything else in the divorce...everything comes down to our child and we know this is noise. If I have to estate sale the collection so be it, it's just money but I don't think that will happen unless we end up with someone really dumb. There will be one mutually agreed upon appraiser, her side just wants to make sure they do what they're supposed to and aren't collaborating with me I'm sure, my side just wants to make sure it's not some damn idiot using tcgmid for a beat to shit lotus and stuff like that.

posted in Art and Collecting read more

So I will note that ironically this represents the f**king danger of having collectors insurance. It wouldn't even have been on the radar if I haven't had a past policy lol. Like my wife's jewelry much of which has been conveniently lost over the past month...not insured beyond homeowners,ha.

posted in Art and Collecting read more

A good deal of it in terms of the value but this is what lawyers are paid to bitch about you know and it takes orders to exclude preexisting assets in ma