Best posts made by bactgudz
posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

Here is the analysis of Sphinx in Dredge, analytic (not simulated)
p0 below represents prob of having bazaar on the play, p1 on the draw.

Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Play
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.33%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.37%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.41%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.45%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.27%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.31%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.34%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.38%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.05%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.08%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.12%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.15%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.65%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.68%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.7%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.73%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.05%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.07%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.09%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.11%
Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Draw
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.3% p1=88.4%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.09% p1=88.51%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=85.86% p1=88.61%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.16% p1=88.72%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.52% p1=90.33%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.33% p1=90.42%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.41% p1=90.51%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.36% p1=90.61%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.57% p1=92.1%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.54% p1=92.18%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.51% p1=92.26%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.44% p1=92.34%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.47% p1=93.69%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.44% p1=93.76%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.41% p1=93.82%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.37% p1=93.89%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.11% p1=95.08%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.08% p1=95.13%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.06% p1=95.19%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.03% p1=95.24%

posted in Art and Collecting read more

So I will note that ironically this represents the f**king danger of having collectors insurance. It wouldn't even have been on the radar if I haven't had a past policy lol. Like my wife's jewelry much of which has been conveniently lost over the past month...not insured beyond homeowners,ha.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

This qualifies as a legit beast

posted in Art and Collecting read more

Still going on, pain in the butt that I still can't actually play cards. Both my wife and I obtained different 'experts' for appraisals. Most retailers will offer to do an appraisal but for a large Vintage collection you may want to be sure to have someone truly qualified, not just the local MTG shop. I was sure to pick someone I knew had a great reputation and qualifications but I had no personal history with. It's not a fun process and a bit idiotic to be honest; very easy for one side to devolve into trying to pay $x in legal fees to gain $x/2 from the other.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

flying Foundry Inspector

posted in Decks read more

If the point of the fast mana is to cast null rod, mox diamond doesn't seem like any more of a nombo than a workshop that becomes useless after casting the rod (I wouldn't think that spyglass and rod are in the deck together for many matchups). Diamond is certainly more useful when you don't have the rod. Diamond also lets you power out stony silence...in fact maybe mox pearl or emerald may be worth considering if you are dedicating those shops slots to powering out rod effects.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@fsecco
No, those are counts of cards in your deck...
Take the example of having 4 powder and 4 sphixes in your deck. Sphinx does nothing to increase your chance of having bazaar on the play, it only helps you on have it on the draw (or equivalently turn 2 of the play)...so when you have BOTH powder and sphinx in your deck, you need to decide on a mulligan strategy:
-Do I max the prob I have it on the play?
-Or do I max the prob I have it on the draw (or equivalently by turn 2 on the play)
This is why there are two tables.