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posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

lol, luckily this doesn’t have to be a ponder vs preordain debate. scry 3 is almost always better than scry 2 and (rearrange the top three or shuffle)...so pick your poison when doing your own heuristic analysis.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@Stormanimagus no I’m saying you put this in your deck because you win 40% of games by casting one or more free super preordains into an always on thassa turn 1 and the other 60% of games you play out with 4 copies of the thassa in you deck, because your deck probably can manipulate copies it doesn’t need to the bottom, shuffle them away, or otherwise make them magically turn into other cards.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@Stormanimagus if you are on the draw, scrying IS putting it into your hand turn one (and it’s a blue card pitching to force that paradoxical). Or if you are on the play with a draw spell or draw land, it is putting it in your hand turn one. I suspect the reason this card will be strong is it’s ability to act like a free preordain. It’s too bad it has to be in a blue deck to replace itself with a playable card or not be dead out of your opener.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@protoaddct
You pose an interesting question...does this increase your chances of being busted, starting with 2 bazaars on turns 1+2? I will study this.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@fsecco
No, those are counts of cards in your deck...
Take the example of having 4 powder and 4 sphixes in your deck. Sphinx does nothing to increase your chance of having bazaar on the play, it only helps you on have it on the draw (or equivalently turn 2 of the play)...so when you have BOTH powder and sphinx in your deck, you need to decide on a mulligan strategy:
-Do I max the prob I have it on the play?
-Or do I max the prob I have it on the draw (or equivalently by turn 2 on the play)
This is why there are two tables.

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

@fsecco The strategy in the second table is to maximize the probability of having bazaar on the draw (p1). This may be accomplished (and we see it sometimes is in analysis) by lowering your chance of having it in your opener but increasing the chance it is on the top of your deck. For instance. If I have a 6 card hand, 1 powder, 3 sphinxes, do I mull or scry 10?

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

Here is the analysis of Sphinx in Dredge, analytic (not simulated)
p0 below represents prob of having bazaar on the play, p1 on the draw.

Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Play
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.33%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.37%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.41%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.45%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.27%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.31%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.34%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.38%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.05%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.08%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.12%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.15%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.65%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.68%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.7%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.73%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.05%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.07%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.09%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.11%
Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Draw
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.3% p1=88.4%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.09% p1=88.51%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=85.86% p1=88.61%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.16% p1=88.72%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.52% p1=90.33%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.33% p1=90.42%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.41% p1=90.51%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.36% p1=90.61%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.57% p1=92.1%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.54% p1=92.18%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.51% p1=92.26%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.44% p1=92.34%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.47% p1=93.69%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.44% p1=93.76%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.41% p1=93.82%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.37% p1=93.89%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.11% p1=95.08%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.08% p1=95.13%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.06% p1=95.19%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.03% p1=95.24%

posted in Single-Card Discussion read more

Seems very promising. Surveil 2 is arguably worth a 2/1 body...and snapping back FOW or Gush now sounds like fun.

posted in Decks read more

If the point of the fast mana is to cast null rod, mox diamond doesn't seem like any more of a nombo than a workshop that becomes useless after casting the rod (I wouldn't think that spyglass and rod are in the deck together for many matchups). Diamond is certainly more useful when you don't have the rod. Diamond also lets you power out stony silence...in fact maybe mox pearl or emerald may be worth considering if you are dedicating those shops slots to powering out rod effects.