@ajfirecracker Do you think Dredge would still run Serum Powder if you have to put the cards back prior to mulliganing?
Hard to say.
I think Powder is actually better with this rule but so are normal mulligans, so it's hard to say how that all cashes out. Note that the cards are put back on the bottom, so Powder is fully effective to dig, and you find Powder more often on more cards, and you can more often avoid exiling multiple Powder for a single effect. So we have 1 neutral factor, 2 positive factors for Powder, and 1 "negative" factor in that the effect is not as sorely needed.
More Powders does also mean more cards in hand on average when you find Bazaar, which is worth a lot when you have disruption elements you can cast from hand.
Every good vintage deck will have certain hands that are almost unbeatable. That is vintage.
If that's Vintage then why don't we love a rule change that will maximize what Vintage is?
This argument could be made about any rule change with this kind of impact. For that reason, I find it very unconvincing.
Was talking about this in the Dredge discord, someone pointed out that you have 7 attempts (7 card hand, 6 card hand, etc. to 1 card hand) so it's only about 2.8% to whiff without any Serum Powder or other enhancers. I think you forgot to count your opening 7 prior to any mulligans.
So this cuts the failure rate in half and frees up 0-4 slots for something else. Seems good.
I think there's a real chance Dredge is oppressive with this new rule.
A build like Pitch Dredge becomes much, much stronger with more cards in hand on average and better ability to filter good cards into its opening hand. Even an alternate plan like Dark Depths becomes much more attractive when you can filter more deeply to find it.
This new mulligan rule without Serum Powder or Scry is better than the current rule with Serum Powder + Scry
New rule: 4.7% chance of miss = 95.3% chance of hit
(should also consider the top card of the deck if you're on the draw, with 6 known misses on the bottom of the deck)
Current rule, with Powder + Scry: 94.2% chance to hit during mulligans, 95.0% chance to hit after scry + draw.
So this new rule would be an upgrade without Powder. With Powder the math gets complicated (you could exile multiple Serum Powder at once) but Powder should eliminate ballpark 2/3 of the mulligans to oblivion. In this case, the miss rate would fall to about 1.5%. My suspicion is that because you always Powder for 7 under the new rule it has a little more impact than that and you get the miss rate down to 1%ish
In short: yes please
One source of the mulligan numbers is here: http://www.archive.themanadrain.com/index.php?topic=48196.0
Thanks Lance, that's a cool idea. Doomsday can tutor up your other sideboard cards so you don't necessarily have to spend a ton of slots from your 75
I think the main criteria we are looking for are:
How much hate does a given post-board plan address?
How many slots are needed for a given post-board plan?
How much synergy does the plan have with the existing Dredge card pool?
How well positioned is a given plan relative to the current metagame?
And to the extent not captured above: How does a given plan rank in terms of raw power (speed, resilience to disruption, consistency, etc)?
Am I missing anything critical?