JANUARY 9, 2017 BANNED AND RESTRICTED ANNOUNCEMENT POLL



  • I don't think that's what Soly is saying ... he's saying his learned heuristics and decision making are muted in a word with perfect information for basically 2 life and +1 mana for delve +1 storm. The opportunity cost of running probe isn't high enough. See: Peek. The player with experience and bluffing skills, or an ability to guesstimate hgd on the fly from years of experience vs. the pack mule who happened to draw probe.



  • @Soly What are you playing?


  • TMD Supporter

    @Soly said in [JANUARY 9, 2017 BANNED AND RESTRICTED ANNOUNCEMENT POLL](/post/15047

    I'll be getting back on MTGO shortly, and every deck I play will have a bare minimum of 3 Gitaxian Probe, and most likely 4.

    Hey let me know when bro, so I can take advantage of all that free value.



  • @ApolloGod I've been playing the format since 2003 and have a plethora of high profile finishes including Champs 2008, Traviscon 2008 Day 2, on top of playing the VERY FIRST GUSH TEMPO DECK in the format.

    I find it hilarious you're saying that I don't have 'a ton of experience in a particular meta'. That's laughable at best.



  • @Soly Pat Chapin might have some issues with your all caps brag there


  • TMD Supporter

    @ribby said in JANUARY 9, 2017 BANNED AND RESTRICTED ANNOUNCEMENT POLL:

    @Soly what you just wrote is basically the complete opposite of what is actually happening. Gush can easily encourage boring and degenerate play patterns in the abstract, so it's definitely something to watch for. But in today's specific environment the only viable Gush-driven play pattern that is genuinely uninteresting is Mentor-as-proxy-for-Tendrils/Tinker. It's tough to get around - the tactical weaknesses of Mentor are offset by the tactical strengths of white control cards. Wouldn't mind restriction of Mentor just because it's frankly a little boring, but this opinion isn't super strong.

    The other effects of Gush today are awesome.

    • Games that don't end OR effectively end before turn 3
    • Cards that are one thing some of the time and something else other times (think Lightning Bolt, or JVP, or better yet Bolt and JVP in the same deck)
    • Explicitly bringing the necessary skill of considering mana efficiency and mana curve out of good deck designers
    • Meaningful combat in some matchups. This includes blocking and removal, but also tempo-related concepts like racing and how it affects the sequencing of plays
    • Less off-color Moxen and more attention to color balance in manabases.
    • Multi-purpose lands. This feeds back into the "things that are two different things" theme - Gush decks are running Strip Mines etc. to make sure they have big enough manabases but can do something with excess land. It would be better still if the format shifted to a place where Gush decks had to consider sometimes running creature-lands - or if non-Gush decks got edge from being able to more easily run them.

    This needs to go even further. Vintage would be better, for instance, if value 2-for-1s like Searing Blaze were viable. Then players could squeeze more out of their decks, and gameplay gets more interesting and varied. This is more likely with Gush than without: to use my example, Searing Blaze is only a 2-for-1 if damage to the face and damage to small creatures are actually valued effects.

    Basically, circa-2006 Vintage really only made you care about one thing (accumulate enough stuff to resolve Yawg Will) and 2016/17 Vintage makes you care about multiple things. Which is awesome.

    I suspect you won't agree with any of this, but you want Vintage Magic to be chess and I prefer that Vintage Magic be Magic.

    Also: I'm sure you're very skilled, but maybe you're overestimating your own skill when you talk about how you're not winning as often now?

    Brilliantly put.

    Gush decks are better for the format's health and vitality than Tinker and Yawg Will decks. They create less swingy games, and more interactive games.

    The decline of Big Blue decks, in my opinion, has less to do with the rise of Gush (after all, big blue won multiple Vintage Championships with Gush unrestricted in this period) than the printing of hate cards like Cage and Priest.

    Restricting Gush is laughable. There was 1 Gush deck in the 2016 Vintage Championship Top 8, and 5 Thorn decks. Gush is not a problem in this format at the highest levels of competition.

    Restricting Gitaxian Probe is laughable, imo. For experienced players, the information is greatly overvalued. The best part of Probe is pumping Mentor and generating tokens. For strictly cycling/thinning purposes, Street Wraith is superior, and it doesn't see play.

    Preordain is actually a logical restriction target. I've said this before, in 2014 there were 6 Preordain decks in the Vintage Champs Top 8. Restricting Preordain would weaken Gush decks, as well as other blue strategies. And Preordain is only a shade worse than Ponder, which is already restricted.

    But, it's my view that the format is fine as it is right now. Everyone is a little unhappy, and that's a better state of affairs than if some people were happy and some people were very unhappy. You cant please everyone all of the time.


  • TMD Supporter

    Yeah Soly, each time you brag about the past you try to make yourself seem better and better. I played back then too dude and the consensus was that you sucked. Just because time is passing doesn't mean you're getting any better at Magic; and based on your recent posts I'd say you got worse!

    What have you done that's relevant in the last 5 years? Still qualified to be exempt from criticism?



  • Damn dude.





  • @Smmenen said in JANUARY 9, 2017 BANNED AND RESTRICTED ANNOUNCEMENT POLL:

    For experienced players, the information is greatly overvalued.

    Bingo. I wouldn't expect someone who has a great feel for the metagame to even feel like Probe is anything more than a way to generate a free Monk token because you have studied and played the game at a high level for years. It's scrubs like me that get the most benefit from Probe. And lets not kid ourselves at all, Probe is just as good as thinning a deck as Street Wraith. Street Wraith is completely inferior to Probe and the only time it is better is in decks that care more about a creature in the graveyard and an uncounterable cycle. None of those things matter in modern Vintage. What matters is getting a free peek at your opponents grip while doing the same thing that Street Wraith does at the expense of being counterable. Period.



  • @enderfall said in JANUARY 9, 2017 BANNED AND RESTRICTED ANNOUNCEMENT POLL:

    @Smmenen said in JANUARY 9, 2017 BANNED AND RESTRICTED ANNOUNCEMENT POLL:

    For experienced players, the information is greatly overvalued.

    Bingo. I wouldn't expect someone who has a great feel for the metagame to even feel like Probe is anything more than a way to generate a free Monk token because you have studied and played the game at a high level for years. It's scrubs like me that get the most benefit from Probe. And lets not kid ourselves at all, Probe is just as good as thinning a deck as Street Wraith. Street Wraith is completely inferior to Probe and the only time it is better is in decks that care more about a creature in the graveyard and an uncounterable cycle. None of those things matter in modern Vintage. What matters is getting a free peek at your opponents grip while doing the same thing that Street Wraith does at the expense of being counterable. Period.

    And scrubs like Brian Kelly, who never builds a deck without multiple Probes...And Rodrigo Togores who plays the card a ton and feels it should be banned in every format.

    The Gush mirror comes down to resolving your threats and key card draw spells through an assortment of conditional answers. Gitaxian Probe informs you both of the spells your opponent has that you have to play around and the threats they have that you need to answer. I don't care how experienced a person claims to be - you can't look at one untapped fetchland and tell me you can read whether the opponent has Flusterstorm, Pyroblast, Spell Pierce, or Swords to Plowshares. Probe makes your Preordains, Brainstorms, Ponders, Dacks, Digs, JVPs, etc. better by informing you of the relative value of your cards. It is a powerful card in the blue mirror and rewards technical players like Brian, Rodrigo, and Reid Duke, who are experts at navigating convoluted game states. I'm not saying Probe should be restricted in Vintage but really, this "experience" argument could not be more inaccurate.


  • TMD Supporter

    Let's not get tripped up on semantics. I didn't say the information had no value - just that it was overvalued.

    Probe is just as good as thinning a deck as Street Wraith

    Re-read my quote: "For strictly cycling/thinning purposes, Street Wraith is superior, and it doesn't see play."

    I didn't say that Street Wraith is a better card than Probe. It clearly isn't. Just that Street Wraith is better for strictly thinning purposes, as it can't be countered/missteped, etc. If all you were trying to do was thin your deck, for whatever reason, and you didn't care at all about what your opponent was playing or hand in hand or seek to generate storm or tokens, etc then Street Wraith would be just as good. Obviously, those things matter or else Probe wouldn't see so much play.

    I think Preordain is clearly a superior card to Gitaxian Probe, in terms of restriction consideration...



  • @ChubbyRain When your opponent always knows your resistance level... But walks right into this guy:

    alt text



  • @Smmenen Gitaxian Probe is really not comparable to Street Wraith, or Preordain to do this shows a massive misunderstanding of why the card sees so much play and why its so good. Yes, it cycles and for 0 mana, but that is pretty much where the comparisons ends.

    Telepathy costs U, and -1 card. Yet in my early days of playing magic, it was a damn good card. The perfect knowledge for a beginner is INSANE. Yes, I understand your point that as you get more experience perfect knowledge becomes less important, but it is still valuable. With a lot of experience, you can make a good estimation of what's in your opponents hand, maybe even up to 90% or so, but that's still less than 100%. The cost of Gitaxian probe to fill in that extra 10%? Just 2 life. No cards, no mana. When you talk about cards like Cabal Therapy that information becomes even more valuable. As a diehard dredge player, I feel I can blind name game changing cards something around 50+%, I'd consider that to be pretty good. But if they don't have any game changing cards in their hand, its 0%. With probe though? That's 100%. Every time. You get a similar improvement to every tutor, every Preordain/ponder/brainstorm, every fetchland that you use after you probe. You can go from some % less than 100, to 100% that is the right play. I don't care how good you are, you are not always going to 100% make the right play based on your opponents hand without actually knowing your opponents hand! This information is the entire reason the card is good. Neither Street Wraith, nor preodain do that.

    In addition:
    Compared to Street Wraith:
    Its also a blue card, which means the card can be pitched to Force of Will. Its also an instant/sorcery meaning that you can flash it back on a resolved Yawg Will, or with a Jace/Snapcaster, and that it also triggers your Mentor and adds to your storm. Unlike Street Wraith, its hit by spheres, it can be countered and can't be eaten by an Ichorid.

    Compared to Preordain:
    It costs 0 mana. Meaning you can play it turn 1 before you cast any of your other spells, and even before you choose to play your land. Meaning you can play it in a non-blue deck altogether. Meaning that it has 0 tempo less. Unlike Preodain, it doesn't really improve the quality of your draws.

    This all said, restricting the card is absurd. Its a good card, even a great card, but it does almost nothing in the scheme of balancing decks. Any deck without Thorn effects can, and honestly probably should play it if they can find room in their deck.



  • @desolutionist You played in like 2006 and 2007; I broke out in 2008. And you haven't been relevant since, while my name is still there.


  • TMD Supporter

    @Soly The response was to @ribby, which is why I quoted his "braindead" remark. I could have used a direct quote in my response, but I shouldn't have to. If you were reading his previous responses, and I gather that you had, you should be able to infer that my response was not towards you.

    I understand that you're passionate about the topic, but shoot-from-the-hip responses aren't helpful.

    EDIT: And I will add for the record, that I highly respect many of the people on this site, including @Soly , @Smmenen, and many others. I've learned a lot about the format by watching, listening, and reading what all of you have contributed over the years.



  • @ApolloGod misunderstanding; apologies.



  • @ChubbyRain I wasn't trying to say that only bad players benefit; clearly great players can benefit from knowing what is in your opponents hand, too. Sorry if that was not clear. The overall point I was trying to make is that the card (Probe) rewards players for simply casting the spell. The worst case scenario for the card is that they Misstep it and that's one less Misstep you'll have to fight through the rest of the game.



  • @ApolloGod come again?


  • TMD Supporter

    @ribby Sorry my quoting abilities are misfiring this evening. I was intending to respond to a post in which you were quoted, and I misinterpreted the original response as the quoted response.

    I need to take some time to slow down my thoughts I suppose.

    Apologies to @Soly, @ribby, and @ whomever else I've quoted improperly.


 

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