Paradoxical Outcome vs Mind's Desire

Mind's Desire is currently restricted due to the fact that you can hit another Mind's Desire off one and cast your entire deck.

Paradoxical Outcome does basically the same thing but for cheaper, and it's an instant.

(I hope this is the correct place for this topic)

@Water0 Can you perhaps elaborate on the purpose of this thread? Are you suggesting that Paradoxical Outcomes be restricted? Are you suggesting that Mind's Desire should be unrestricted? Are you looking for a deck discussion? Ways on combating Outcomes? Pros and cons?

@ChubbyRain Sorry, I should have said that Paradoxical Outcome should already be on the restricted list. I went from barely ever losing on turn 1 to needing to have a game winning turn 1 play (stony silence/null rod/etc or force of will) or the game ends.

For the record, I only play decks I would consider "good" against Paradoxical Outcome at this point because something like 90% of my online opponents are playing it.

last edited by Water0

Sad to see I can't make sarcastic polls mid thread.

This reminds me of the time individuals wanted Dark Petition restricted.

Paradoxical Outcome has been legal for quite some time now, and it hasn't really had the impact that many (including myself) thought it would have. It's widely played but at the moment doesn't have a positive winrate. So let's put the restriction discussion on hold until the data suggests that it should be restricted.

@Griselbrother I guess every single online opponent I have must have the most extreme luck of all time because I am losing every single game on turn 1 unless I cast a discard spell or play something that stops either their mana or them drawing extra cards. Getting wheeled into oblivion is also extremely fun.

@Water0 Thank you for clarifying.

My opinion is that Outcomes does not represent an issue as far as the health of the metagame/balance/diversity etc though it is early. The fastest versions of the deck are inconsistent and not very resilient to the hate pieces you've mentioned. It's a slightly better version of Belcher in my experience so far. You can make an argument that the card itself promotes uninteractive gameplay and is unhealthy for the format from that perspective, but I haven't reached the same level of frustration that you have reached. If you are playing in the "tournament practice room" on MTGO, that ends up being a very skewed metagame as I feel it's far more casual than the name implies. People with the cards want to do broken things with zero risk (or little risk if you are playing in the 2-man queues). That hasn't translated into performance in Dailies or Paper metagames, where the entry fee entices people to play "better" or at least more consistent decks.

@socialite That was more an appeal to "equality" than it was a legitimate grievance about the card. People believed that because Shops got hit, other archetypes needed to be hit which is the logic a toddler uses when a sibling gets a new toy (Gotta get into the Christmas spirit of rampant materialism). Well, there was also that annoying fallacy that Shops (Chalice, Golem, etc...) was the only thing standing in the way of the next Combo Winter. Hopefully, that's past us...

I'm picking Mind's Desire in this match-up. How about you Bob?

@ChubbyRain If it matters, I'm playing in my own xmage room labeled "competitive please," and I have had nothing but PO the past couple of days. I'll get the occasional mentor or maybe dredge, but it's not even funny how many people are on PO. I was playing either hatebears or BUG Leovold, and I just slapped 4 Null Rods in my BUG sideboard because I was quite frankly sick of this shit. Maybe I should have already been doing that, but I felt like 3 Thoughtseizes, 2 Hymns, 4 Forces, 3 Missteps, and Leovold (prevents them from drawing cards) was more than enough disruption; I was wrong.

@Water0 If I might make some suggestions to kill this evil deck... Try, 3 Null and a Chalice instead of the 4 Null in the case when you draw both at once, plus it makes it hard for them to make permanents that they can bounce with Outcome... or run Chalice in addition to the 4, if you are feeling particularly hateful. Obviously Thalia is great against it, as is Thorn of Amethyst... much better than Hymn at the 2CMC level I would guess, if you're on the Hatebear tip. Chains of Mephistopheles is actually an option if you must run black mana, but I don't think it's on MOTO? And it's super expensive in real life. (IDK, I'm not on MOTO either... so whatever.) Sanctum Prelate also hurts them a lot, though might be slow (as I think Leovold would be against it..., But a 3CMC bomb can be fine.) And Mindbreak Trap is a nice one if you are running counter type things like Force of Will.

I do suggest running permanents that lock them out as opposed to just relaying on counters, since they tend to run a lot of Defense Grids.

Happy hunting.

@Griselbrother The real reason this card is unrestricted is that nobody has the end-all be-all list.

@Topical_Island I am running literally all of the cards you just mentioned and generally smash them with them, but it's tough when they go off on turn 1. I have Stony Silence main deck (with extra in the sideboard), 4 Thorns, 3 Thalias, 3 Spirits of the Labyrinth, and 3 Sanctum Prelates in addition to 3 Vryn Wingmares. I expect to lose at least one game to tinker into blightsteel, but there's not much I can do about that since I need to deploy my other cards first even if I have Containment Priest (and I usually sideboard some in since they're better than other cards I have vs the deck). It can be tough to keep hands since I NEED to drop something on turn 1 or risk losing the game, so I often end up losing to bad opening hands.

@Water0 Oh ok, sorry if it looked like I was talking down to you. Can I ask how often you play against it as a % of games you play... and how often do you think you win the match against it when you do?

@Topical_Island I'd say I play against the deck somewhere between 65-85% of the time, and I'd say I win maybe 60-70% of the matches? It's possible that my luck was bound to catch up with me, but I had multiple opponents go off on turn 1 in a row today either just straight winning or casting multiple wheels until my hand was just garbage.

last edited by Water0

@Water0 Yeah. If those numbers are right... firstly, then you are winning a ton of games so kudos to you. Even conservatively, 60% of 65% is 39%... So if you're even winning only 40% of your remaining games... that's still winning 55% of your games, and that's about the worst you could probably be doing... so, not a bad clip for the ole' hatebears.

Also, if those numbers are real (I would write down your games, or keep track somehow too) maybe Mindbreak Trap the side for a deck that doesn't even run blue isn't such a crazy thing. If 70% of the world is running storm than everyone should be running Trap... Not sure if you already are. (Plus it's pretty sweet if you're running bears to have them think they are gonna blow you out with turn one outcome only to get rekt by the Trap.

And yea, turn 1 kills can be annoying. When the other guy just hits perfect gin on you a bunch of times in a row... well, just shrug and remember that it all comes around I guess.

@Topical_Island That sounds like a great plan; I'll start writing down how often I run into them and definitely consider running Mindbreak Trap (which I have done in nonblue decks in the past). I didn't think I needed it; but if everyone is running storm, there's no reason not to play numerous sideboard cards for it.

Mind's Desire is functionally uncounterable because it has Storm. That's a huge difference. You need a specialized counterspell to deal with it. Against control decks, unrestricted Mind's Desire is much more insane than unrestricted Paradoxical Outcome.

If Paradoxical Outcome were proven to become a problem, I'd restrict Mox Opal before Paradoxical Outcome.

last edited by Smmenen

@Smmenen Opal? Really? Paradoxical Outcome is still insane with one opal. If Opal goes, so should chrome mox, and I don't see why either should go except P.O. unless Chalice comes off the list. Which would definitely kill my chances of ever running ANT ever again but it would be worth seeing Paradoxical Outcome take a hit.

PO may still be viable with Opal restricted, but it's greatly weakened. Not simply because Opal is a common accelerant for PO, but because of the way in which Opal functions more broadly in PO decks, and as PO decks build a critical mass.

In my experience, Opal is the card that allows Paradoxical Outcome to avoid bottlenecking on color requirements. Paradoxical Outcome can still generate gobs of mana post resolution without Opal, and in that way mimic Desire's capacity to make spells "free," but mana requirements and requisites become much tighter, and the pilot much more likely to run out of the critical color, and thus "stall," despite having plenty of colorless or off-color mana post PO resolution. And this is not simply because you get to replay your opal and tap for any color, but because you can draw more Opals, and use them like Lotus Petals for critical colors.

In contrast, in that function, Chrome Mox is very weak substitute because it requires a card to imprint, and only taps for one color of mana (in most cases), and not always your first choice.

Chrome Mox and Mox Diamond were once restricted in Vintage, but when Mox Opal was printed, I opined in my set review that I thought it was the "best Mox since Alpha," and I think that assessment remains true. I wouldn't play less than 4 Opal in any Paradoxical Outcome deck, because the marginal value of Opal is actually quite high, and it's synergy with PO is quite pronounced.

In any event, I don't understand why anyone right now would want paradoxical outcome restricted. For many months now, people have been complaining that there are no blue draw engines that can compete with Gush. Let's move forward, not backward.

last edited by Smmenen

@Smmenen Paradoxical Outcome is not a "draw engine to compete with Gush;" it's a tool that just improves combo decks. No one playing Paradoxical Outcome is playing it to "draw extra cards;" no one.

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