Vintage Championships 2016 - Decklists and Metagame Analysis

@Water0 Hehe, no. I got involved with Magic through the Microprose game Shandalar, and have never really played or watched cardboard Magic (until Randy's excellent coverage team this weekend). I've been on MTGO since 2002, my handle being what I thought would be a good store name back before bots existed online. It's vintage-angle is more coincidental than anything else.

If I played in paper, I'd hate it after doing about the second shuffle, I'd forget to untap my lands every turn, and pick up every single game rules violation imaginable without ever wanting to cheat in the slightest.

I announced to my friends that I just played my last chess tournament this weekend after beating the top junior player in my state in the last round. My rating for my last 200 or so games was in the 2100s, but I never quite broke the 2200 "master" barrier. I hope I can keep up that retirement as I'm getting old and can't keep up two hobbies.

Thanks for wanting to cheer me on. 🙂 Hopefully, I can do something worthwhile online someday to earn it.

Landstill/Oath seems kind of interesting, actually. Gonna have to haev a chat with Mr. Fleischmann-Rose next time I see him.

Just want to point out that my list was given to me by @diophan based on discussions with @ChubbyRain .

I was surprised to see my name there. I kinda forgot. ^_^'

Added a link to Top 64 decklists. Also added a search function that counts individual cards. For instance, there were 5 decks running 17 copies of Paradoxical Outcome in the Top 64 for an average of 3.40 copies per deck. Download it as a copy and you can search for whatever cards you want. Ctrl+F is the best way to find individual decks.

Suggestions, comments? Let us know.

How does 17% unpowered compare to previous years?

@methaloam Here is the metagame data from last year:

I glanced through the page and didn't see that Jaco added up all the budget decks, but you could easily do so if interested.

@diophan thank you. I come up with 66/462 "budget" decks for 14% of the meta for anyone interested.

@Islandswamp said:

@Arcranedenial said:

Thanks for the notice, I thought my Red-Meta deck was great for the weekend and could have easily made top 8. It should be noted the 4th Eidolon and the Mindbreak Trap would have been Leyline of Sanctity 3-4 but they couldn't be found 😕

I keep getting asked about budget lists for MTGO. I think yours might be cheap online, if you get a chance would you message me the list in text form? If i use it you'll get full credit of course.

Unless several key cards have tanked online, I think you will find the list to be comparable to fully powered lists. Eidolon is around 20 each, Ensnaring Bridge around 30, City of Traitors around 25. This may not sound like much but Moxen right now are in the same price range (20-30). There also isn't currently an incentive for playing an unpowered list (i.e. no additional price support). Just mentioning this because I think it's best to focus on the deck's success rather than it being "budget", Joe, since for the majority of your readers, I doubt that would be true.

@Arcranedenial Congrats on your finish. I am interested in streaming this online at some point in the future (perhaps this weekend). Are there any changes you would make to the list and would you add Power given the things I mentioned above?

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@ChubbyRain The SB should have 4 leyline of sanctity(-1 trap/eidolon). Depending on your expected meta I would tweak some things. I was expecting a large number of shops/eldrazi while still being "covered" vs other powerful archetypes. If landstill if a popular deck in your expected meta you'll need to work something out for that matchup (4-6 basics is pretty rough on the gameplan). Lotus and Ruby are auto includes haven't thought much about a powered list though honestly.

@ChubbyRain Yeah I plugged it in to mtggoldfish and it's not cheap. I thought about trying to switch it around a little bit for cost reasons, but I'm worried that will make it not nearly as good.

I noticed one of the Oath decks that did alright had a similar build to one of mine. I thought that was pretty cool. Although that list did not contain and Preordains and played a bunch of stuff that I wouldn't consider playing... The Tinker/Sphinx package made me smile though.

Are you going to conduct a more detailed analysis, as you have done for the other major events this year? Including archetype win %ages against each other, etc? I realize that requires going through all of the pairings (which I assume you can get, since they were published), but it would be very insightful.

last edited by Smmenen

@Smmenen Will have them up tomorrow.


Every Single Decklist Played at Champs

*Except for Mukesh Ablack who we assume is on Colorless Eldrazi based on what his opponents told us.

Win Percentages by Archetype and SubArchetype

Mistakes? Comment on the sheet and let us know here.

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@ChubbyRain I mean... come on. How cool is this? (And they say there isn't any good content on TMD). Thank you, Thank you, Thank you.

@ChubbyRain Things like this remind me over and over again why our Vintage community is one of the absolutely best things of MTG.

Your commitment to the cause is really impressive 🙂

Matt, tyvm for taking the last 2 months to type this stuff up.
You and Ryan are tireless and i appreciate this contribution alot.

Ok... so lets start digging in to this data. I'm looking at some widely played cards that weren't archetype defining. Starting with Swords to Plowshares I looked at its usage and correlation with Swiss points. (Spoiler alert, widely used and no correlation with winning).

Anyone else have any others they want me to do?

last edited by Topical_Island

@Topical_Island Can you automate it so we just type in the name of the card we want to look at? What would be more interesting for me is if you could do a conditional search. For instance how well did decks running Thought-Knot Seer and Mishra's Workshop do compared to decks running Mishra's Workshop without TKS? Same with Gush decks and the number of basic islands they run.

@diophan Yeah, that's actually what I'm working on now, card interactions. Right now I'm just reentering data by single cards, which is pretty lame. But I'd be happy to do one for you if you want. I might have to set up some program to scrap the data, because I'm not sure the kind of cross referencing of cards is possible withing excel or google forms given the way the data is encoded now.

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