I learned something that won't show up in Ryan's numbers:
Ubastax is an awesome deck; Ensnaring Bridge is a game ending spell in most matches, but utimately this format is no longer a home for true prison control decks. In this format you need something dynamic. Like my Ensnaring Bridges would have also had to have hexproof, have 3/2 first strike bodies, and make my opponents spells cost more. My Uba Masks should have been more like Thought-Knot Seers, which discard a card and attack/block as a 4/4. Cards need to be flexible.
I lost to Lexor19 (White Eldrazi). Game 3 he got down that turn 1 New Thalia, which was pretty impressive.
I lost to a Dredge deck. I cut down to 3 dredge hate because I figured Ensnaring Bridge would help out and it did, but in game 3 he just got off a Serenity.
I lost to a Storm deck in game 3; once again to Serenity.
So had my prison deck not been so slow and linear, those Serenities never would have happened. That White Thalia wins every time though. I'm not sure what to do about that.
Thank you guys for turning out these numbers, the tournament was a blast despite many poor plays on my own behalf. Shout out to Kingneckbeard on his performance, I believe he was one of the innovators of his dredge build with Marit Lage access. Despite beating him in the finals he was my one loss on the day.
Nice to see the results so quickly. Thank you.
I tried to play in this after scrubbing out of GP Indy but updating MTGO on hotel wifi didn't work so well so I literally was about to clicked on join when it fired. Watched The_Atog_Lord stream for a little bit before going out with friends. One of these days I will play in one of these just usually out doing something on a Saturday.
@Minkar It's because I watched a couple replays and I thought it was a deck a couple people ran in the Northeast which included green. It can be easy to make small mistakes like that when trying to figure out so many decks in a short amount of time. I corrected the deckname on the googledoc but forgot to on this post, so thanks for pointing it out.
This is the lowest win %age we've seen for Gush decks in some time (perhaps this year?). I'm curious what folks make of it. One of the arguments against being concerned about that metric is that, with large numbers of players, decks tend towards the mean. Yet, a 43.5% win rate is well below the mean.
Most of the decks that struggle against Gush are bad against the field overall (based on this data). Most of the decks that are strong against Gush are also good against the field overall (based on this data). This suggests Gush may have a systemic issue in the current metagame, so it either has to reverse the matchup on Shops, Eldrazi, or Dredge or hope that someone else pushes those decks out of the metagame.
The "expectation" for Gush is actually 46.19% win-rate in this dataset. If you take the observed win% in each matchup and the observed metagame share of each deck and multiply them, you will end up with a 46.19% win-rate. This can be thought of as the expected Round 1 win-rate of Gush decks. (Round 1 because it is against all decks in the event, so no one has dropped out or entered a different bracket)
(Discovered an error and @diophan corrected it, so Gush's Round 1 rate is actually 46% and not 49%)
What is the most prevalent archetype in the field? Gush.
Which archetype won the past two Power 9s? Gush.
What archetype are decks in the format trying to beat? Gush.
What are Gush pilots trying to beat? Gush.
What happens when Gush pilots try to beat Gush while other archetypes also try to beat Gush? The win percentage against the field goes down.
Throw in the fact that most Gush pilots are frankly terrible and it's no mystery why you have tournaments with sub-50% MWP for Gush against the field. I've been on the record before saying that I don't consider MWP against the field as a good indicator for a popular and targeted deck like Gush and this is a major reason why.
@ChubbyRain Just because they Gush at the worst possible times does't mean they're terrible! Oh wait,,, maybe it does. Can we use a less offensive term than terrible though? How about uniquely skilled, or sparingly talented? Maybe they love Gush so much they don't want to wait until it's a good time to cast it.
Anyway, the world needs bad players, otherwise I'd have nobody to beat ever.
I think between the NYSE, the Waterbury, and the past couple of P9 events this is what I take away:
White Eldrazi would be the best deck, but its high variance. So somedays it's the best deck and some days it isn't.
TKS Ravager Shops is the best deck. Its winning the biggest tournaments and the decklist doesn't change. It's probably just the best strategy overall because it has the most easily assembled turn 1 lines that just shut the opponent out of the game.
Grixis Therapy would be the best deck but it has an uphill battle against Shops and Eldrazi.
@desolutionist I used to crush shops with Grixis, but back then I ran I think four Volcs and a sideboarded mountain, and Pulverize times two. Do you think a similar build could help? I really missed having basic lands in my sideboards in recent weeks. Even when I'm on Oath and I'd normally not care as much, being able to fetch a forest and cast nature's claim all day was so sweet.