Compiling a List of possible turn 1 DPS wins

Hey everybody, I've been interested in compiling a list of all possible turn 1 wins for a standard DPS list. This could be fun for the community and I'm just genuinely interested in collecting data about the deck so it can be further improved. So if you have a minute and you don't see your turn 1 win listed, then please contribute.

Standard List : https://www.mtggoldfish.com/deck/462972#paper

I'll start it off with this one:

4 card combos

Vampiric Tutor, Gitaxian Probe, Black Lotus, Dark Ritual
Black Lotus, Dark Ritual, Dark Ritual, Dark Petition

5 card combos

6 card combos
3. Island, Mana Crypt, Tinker, Dark Ritual, Dark Ritual, Dark Petition
4. Mana Crypt, Mana Vault, Mox Jet, Mox Sapphire, Hurkyl’s Recall, Tendrils
5.

Random Variable

Mind's Desire

4cards

Tolarian Academy, Mana Crypt, Mana Vault, Mind's Desire (3 Storm)

Timetwister

2cards

Black Lotus, Timetwister (0 mana)

3 cards

Mana Crypt, Island, Timetwister (0 mana)

Wheel of Fortune

Necropotence+Time Walk

Yawgmoth's Bargain

@desolutionist

are we counting only tendilrs wins? or do things like time walk with necro/robot count?

@snowydude

Tinker-Robot, Walk counts.

Just don't use anything too obscure. Only cards that are commonly found in the deck.

volcanic island,mana crypt, tinker (lotus), dark ritx2, dark petition(yawg will)
6 cards no black source in the opener

crypt, vault, jet, sapphire, hurkyl's recall (self), defense grid, tendrils
7 cards no lands, no cantrips, no tutors. no lotus

@snowydude

I listed it as 6 cards, without Defense Grid

Aelien

I am afraid there are too many permutations to make a useful list unless you try to categorize them. (with x disruption spells, without any disruption, playing around spell y etc.)

Yeah of course, but I'm starting basic. Those are useful as well. I'd like a computer program to print all unique possible hand configurations and maybe sort out all the ones that are all mana sources or no mana sources w/ cmc 0.

evouga

There will be over 10 million opening hands; even with automatic pruning of some hopeless hands I don't think there will be few enough remaining to manually inspect them all.

@desolutionist said:

@snowydude

I listed it as 6 cards, without Defense Grid

but that was my hand in that game. i mean if you wanted every possible its upwards of millions of variations. i thought you were going for turn 1 hands that we drew in actual games.

also
probe x2, wheel of fortune, lotus, LED, will, tendrils
11 extra cards drawn. 0 of them needed. sadly i was on the draw that game and he had 2 forces so i had to just cast wheel T-T

I want the list of millions of unique hands, ultimately. I'll have to get a computer to do it

Protoaddict

How do you handle for hands that are potential FTKs? There are plenty of hands that can be FTK if you draw extra probes/ancestrals/etc but then its a percentage chance off the top. Also are you factoring in Mulligans and hands on the play vs the draw?

Aaron Patten

I think the best way to go about this is to start with 4 card hands. That will be easy to map and then you can remove a card from each set and add unique cards that are not in any of the 4 card sets to compile the 5 card sets. Repeat for 6 card hands and then again for 7 card hands. If your calculating guaranteed wins then the disruption package should be almost completely irrelevant excepting storm count increases so you could abbreviate that to stating x number of 1 drops or x number of n drops based on available mana instead of naming the individual cards. That would shorten the list and make it so that it's not quite so taxing to map. I think starting with a finite deck-list would be the best way to go. From there it should be possible to map out the possible increases/decreases based on the set the original deck had and what cards were removed/added to each possible scenario set.

@Aaron-Patten

I like that approach. And then for hands with a random Gitaxian Probe or random Ancestral, we can identify what the random draw needs to be and calculate probability of a turn 1 win based on the probability of randomly drawing card x, y, or z.

I could be wrong, but I think all the 4 card wins require a Dark Ritual, a Black Lotus, and a way to get Will.

@desolutionist
you can also lotus crypt tinker walk and show your opponents the ways of yawgmoth by conversion. as opposed to explaining his will.

i tihnk the fewest opening hand cards its possible to win off is 3. lotus show and tell bargin draw 19

@snowydude

Well Show and Tell is not a commonly played card in Storm. There's also a probability associated with Bargain, so it isn't guaranteed.

@desolutionist i've seen it in the oath/doomsday transformational sideboard strategies. which i think are horrible personally.

Would need to make a list of possible Draw7 hands from possible opening hands. And then possible Mind's Desire flips, Yawgmoth's Bargain activations.

I guess I'll start by looking for combos that enable Mind's Desire, or cast Yawgmoth's Bargain or a Draw 7. Otherwise all the turn one wins go through Will or Hurkyl's.

Aelien

Would a turn 1 timewalk into extra turn win count as a turn 1 win here?

Yeah, Time Walk turn counts as turn 1.