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    Compiling a List of possible turn 1 DPS wins

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    • ?
      A Former User @Guest last edited by

      @desolutionist

      are we counting only tendilrs wins? or do things like time walk with necro/robot count?

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      • ?
        A Former User @Guest last edited by

        @snowydude

        Tinker-Robot, Walk counts.

        Just don't use anything too obscure. Only cards that are commonly found in the deck.

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        • ?
          A Former User last edited by

          volcanic island,mana crypt, tinker (lotus), dark ritx2, dark petition(yawg will)
          6 cards no black source in the opener

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          • ?
            A Former User last edited by

            crypt, vault, jet, sapphire, hurkyl's recall (self), defense grid, tendrils
            7 cards no lands, no cantrips, no tutors. no lotus

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            • ?
              A Former User @Guest last edited by

              @snowydude

              I listed it as 6 cards, without Defense Grid

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              • Aelien
                Aelien last edited by

                I am afraid there are too many permutations to make a useful list unless you try to categorize them. (with x disruption spells, without any disruption, playing around spell y etc.)

                1 Reply Last reply Reply Quote 3
                • ?
                  A Former User last edited by

                  Yeah of course, but I'm starting basic. Those are useful as well. I'd like a computer program to print all unique possible hand configurations and maybe sort out all the ones that are all mana sources or no mana sources w/ cmc 0.

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                  • E
                    evouga last edited by

                    There will be over 10 million opening hands; even with automatic pruning of some hopeless hands I don't think there will be few enough remaining to manually inspect them all.

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                    • ?
                      A Former User @Guest last edited by

                      @desolutionist said:

                      @snowydude

                      I listed it as 6 cards, without Defense Grid

                      but that was my hand in that game. i mean if you wanted every possible its upwards of millions of variations. i thought you were going for turn 1 hands that we drew in actual games.

                      also
                      probe x2, wheel of fortune, lotus, LED, will, tendrils
                      11 extra cards drawn. 0 of them needed. sadly i was on the draw that game and he had 2 forces so i had to just cast wheel T-T

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                      • ?
                        A Former User last edited by

                        I want the list of millions of unique hands, ultimately. I'll have to get a computer to do it

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                        • Protoaddict
                          Protoaddict last edited by

                          How do you handle for hands that are potential FTKs? There are plenty of hands that can be FTK if you draw extra probes/ancestrals/etc but then its a percentage chance off the top. Also are you factoring in Mulligans and hands on the play vs the draw?

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                          • Aaron Patten
                            Aaron Patten last edited by Aaron Patten

                            I think the best way to go about this is to start with 4 card hands. That will be easy to map and then you can remove a card from each set and add unique cards that are not in any of the 4 card sets to compile the 5 card sets. Repeat for 6 card hands and then again for 7 card hands. If your calculating guaranteed wins then the disruption package should be almost completely irrelevant excepting storm count increases so you could abbreviate that to stating x number of 1 drops or x number of n drops based on available mana instead of naming the individual cards. That would shorten the list and make it so that it's not quite so taxing to map. I think starting with a finite deck-list would be the best way to go. From there it should be possible to map out the possible increases/decreases based on the set the original deck had and what cards were removed/added to each possible scenario set.

                            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqvKjsIxT_8

                            Pour me a brew as bitter as my blackened heart.

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                            • ?
                              A Former User @Aaron Patten last edited by A Former User

                              @Aaron-Patten

                              I like that approach. And then for hands with a random Gitaxian Probe or random Ancestral, we can identify what the random draw needs to be and calculate probability of a turn 1 win based on the probability of randomly drawing card x, y, or z.

                              I could be wrong, but I think all the 4 card wins require a Dark Ritual, a Black Lotus, and a way to get Will.

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                              • ?
                                A Former User @Guest last edited by

                                @desolutionist
                                you can also lotus crypt tinker walk and show your opponents the ways of yawgmoth by conversion. as opposed to explaining his will.

                                i tihnk the fewest opening hand cards its possible to win off is 3. lotus show and tell bargin draw 19

                                ? M 2 Replies Last reply Reply Quote 0
                                • ?
                                  A Former User @Guest last edited by

                                  @snowydude

                                  Well Show and Tell is not a commonly played card in Storm. There's also a probability associated with Bargain, so it isn't guaranteed.

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                                  • ?
                                    A Former User @Guest last edited by

                                    @desolutionist i've seen it in the oath/doomsday transformational sideboard strategies. which i think are horrible personally.

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                                    • ?
                                      A Former User last edited by A Former User

                                      Would need to make a list of possible Draw7 hands from possible opening hands. And then possible Mind's Desire flips, Yawgmoth's Bargain activations.

                                      I guess I'll start by looking for combos that enable Mind's Desire, or cast Yawgmoth's Bargain or a Draw 7. Otherwise all the turn one wins go through Will or Hurkyl's.

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                                      • Aelien
                                        Aelien last edited by

                                        Would a turn 1 timewalk into extra turn win count as a turn 1 win here?

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                                        • ?
                                          A Former User last edited by

                                          Yeah, Time Walk turn counts as turn 1.

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                                          • ?
                                            A Former User @Guest last edited by

                                            @desolutionist you dont need will or hurkyls to win from 7

                                            lotus, LED, vamp, probe, vault, petition, dark rit

                                            lotus->rit->vamp for crypt ->probe->crypt->vault->play LED->petition for Demonic->DT for tendrils ->tendrils

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