Compiling a List of possible turn 1 DPS wins

@desolutionist

are we counting only tendilrs wins? or do things like time walk with necro/robot count?

@snowydude

Tinker-Robot, Walk counts.

Just don't use anything too obscure. Only cards that are commonly found in the deck.

volcanic island,mana crypt, tinker (lotus), dark ritx2, dark petition(yawg will)
6 cards no black source in the opener

crypt, vault, jet, sapphire, hurkyl's recall (self), defense grid, tendrils
7 cards no lands, no cantrips, no tutors. no lotus

@snowydude

I listed it as 6 cards, without Defense Grid

Aelien

I am afraid there are too many permutations to make a useful list unless you try to categorize them. (with x disruption spells, without any disruption, playing around spell y etc.)

Yeah of course, but I'm starting basic. Those are useful as well. I'd like a computer program to print all unique possible hand configurations and maybe sort out all the ones that are all mana sources or no mana sources w/ cmc 0.

evouga

There will be over 10 million opening hands; even with automatic pruning of some hopeless hands I don't think there will be few enough remaining to manually inspect them all.

@desolutionist said:

@snowydude

I listed it as 6 cards, without Defense Grid

but that was my hand in that game. i mean if you wanted every possible its upwards of millions of variations. i thought you were going for turn 1 hands that we drew in actual games.

also
probe x2, wheel of fortune, lotus, LED, will, tendrils
11 extra cards drawn. 0 of them needed. sadly i was on the draw that game and he had 2 forces so i had to just cast wheel T-T

I want the list of millions of unique hands, ultimately. I'll have to get a computer to do it

Protoaddict

How do you handle for hands that are potential FTKs? There are plenty of hands that can be FTK if you draw extra probes/ancestrals/etc but then its a percentage chance off the top. Also are you factoring in Mulligans and hands on the play vs the draw?

Aaron Patten

I think the best way to go about this is to start with 4 card hands. That will be easy to map and then you can remove a card from each set and add unique cards that are not in any of the 4 card sets to compile the 5 card sets. Repeat for 6 card hands and then again for 7 card hands. If your calculating guaranteed wins then the disruption package should be almost completely irrelevant excepting storm count increases so you could abbreviate that to stating x number of 1 drops or x number of n drops based on available mana instead of naming the individual cards. That would shorten the list and make it so that it's not quite so taxing to map. I think starting with a finite deck-list would be the best way to go. From there it should be possible to map out the possible increases/decreases based on the set the original deck had and what cards were removed/added to each possible scenario set.

@Aaron-Patten

I like that approach. And then for hands with a random Gitaxian Probe or random Ancestral, we can identify what the random draw needs to be and calculate probability of a turn 1 win based on the probability of randomly drawing card x, y, or z.

I could be wrong, but I think all the 4 card wins require a Dark Ritual, a Black Lotus, and a way to get Will.

@desolutionist
you can also lotus crypt tinker walk and show your opponents the ways of yawgmoth by conversion. as opposed to explaining his will.

i tihnk the fewest opening hand cards its possible to win off is 3. lotus show and tell bargin draw 19

@snowydude

Well Show and Tell is not a commonly played card in Storm. There's also a probability associated with Bargain, so it isn't guaranteed.

@desolutionist i've seen it in the oath/doomsday transformational sideboard strategies. which i think are horrible personally.

Would need to make a list of possible Draw7 hands from possible opening hands. And then possible Mind's Desire flips, Yawgmoth's Bargain activations.

I guess I'll start by looking for combos that enable Mind's Desire, or cast Yawgmoth's Bargain or a Draw 7. Otherwise all the turn one wins go through Will or Hurkyl's.

Aelien

Would a turn 1 timewalk into extra turn win count as a turn 1 win here?

Yeah, Time Walk turn counts as turn 1.

@desolutionist you dont need will or hurkyls to win from 7

lotus, LED, vamp, probe, vault, petition, dark rit

lotus->rit->vamp for crypt ->probe->crypt->vault->play LED->petition for Demonic->DT for tendrils ->tendrils