So I am not an expert by any means in the financial world of MTG, but I do okay for fun. I have been intrigued by the recent buyouts of Library of Alexandria and Moat. If you think about it, LoA has been undervalued for quite some time, and have been hovering in the same general price range for almost 10 years. For a key vintage card, this marked an excellent buyout opportunity. Small supply on market, most players will likely keep at least one, a key card for collectors; so not a lot coming up for sale.
I'd like to start a thread wher we can identify other potential buyout cards, so most of us can get them before it's too late. I know I personally was trying to pick up a Moat, but got greedy trying to find a nice one for $225. Won't have that chance again!
I think we have to stick with Arabian, Antiquities, and Legends. Too many copies of A/B/U/Revised out there. Moxes haven't moved in price much in the last 5-10 years, and while duals are super hot, it's hard to capture any meaningful percentage of the supply.
1.) If Mana Drain was on the reserved list this would be an obvious #1, as it's been $100-$150 for almost 10years.
2.) It surprises me that Bazaar of Baghdad is still in the $400-$500 range, comparatively. This is a key card in a tier 1 deck that you need 4 of. I think the only thing holding it back is that Dredge is considered a budget deck for proxy tournaments, so not as much pressure for a player to want originals. Bazaar is also a component of a few tier 1.5 decks too!!
3.) I would assume Chains, Nether Void, and Abyss might be next, but these are only marginally playable in Vintage, but important in Old School.
4.) I think Tabernacle and Workshop are at their realistic peak right now. Workshops has been a top deck for almost 2 years.
I think at this point, most of the playables are gone. Old School could put some further upward pressure on City of Brass, Juzam Djinn, Erhnam, etc, but I think for true buyouts to make a difference, the card has to be playable too. Moat was fringe on this.
The most annoying thing as a buyer, however, is that the Collectibles market doesn't operate like other free markets. Past performance IS an indicator of future performance. If a card spikes, it can easily hold that new price for 1-2 years, as often perception is reality. It can hold that new price until enough open auctions over time bring the card back down. Or, it can maintain that "new bottom."
It's a fun topic. Strange things are afoot in the Vintage singles market! Beware!