Play/draw win rates
Are there any empirical stats on how often the player on the play wins Game 1 in Vintage?
I'm aware of a couple empirical analyses for Standard:
- 400 MTGO Standard games from 2013, win-rate of 56.3% [link]
- ~3.1M Arena Standard/Limited/Brawl games from 2020, win rate of 56.5% among the Standard games [link]
I'm wondering if anyone has undertaken this sort of effort for Vintage.
One way to do this (assuming no one already has) would be to make a bot to record play draw and winners and throw it as some of the streamers YouTube vids. This would yield a fairly large data set relative to the rather small vintage community although it would have a number of unfortunate confounding factors.