Gush had a sub - 50% MWP. Speculating on this, a part was due to Eldrazi and Shops being highly favored against the deck. A second part was the archetype being by far the most known element of the field - this led to both the deck being targeted (i.e. with defense grids, Sudden Shocks, etc.) and the deck being adopted by those without much in the way of experience with the deck. Despite the 46% MWP, the top 8 was half Gush, as was six of the top 16 (37.5%) - both outperformed the 32.5% of the metagame that was Gush. Tom Metelsky @i_b_TRUE has played Gush decks online almost exclusively for some time. Hank Zhong used to be an Oath player but made the switch to Gush Mentor a couple of months back and put up some strong finishes. Vito has played Gush forever it seems. Brian Kelly's aptitude with Gush needs no explanation. AJ Grasso has a Champs finals with Gush Delver to his credit. This suggests that while the average player struggled in a hostile field, those most experienced with the archetype did very well. At least, that is my rationalization for the apparent contradiction.
I think a more plausible explanation is that the best players in the room were disproportionately on Gush (Rich Shay, Kelly, etc.) It's reasonable to think that they would have done just as well, and perhaps better, with a better performing archetype, like Workshop Eldrazi.
For example, Rich Shay is one of the most experienced Gush pilots on the planet, and I think he finished 5-3 with Sylvan Mentor. I think Ari Lax, possibly the best magic player in the room, had a similar finish (6-2) with Gush as well. I suspect both would have done better, or at least as well, had they played the best performing deck, Workshop Eldrazi.
I'd like to see the entire metagame breakdown (by finish) to try to assess this question better.
It's notable that Combo actually had a 56% win percentage against Gush, which is another weakness (as I mentioned in my podcast) for Gush decks. According to the table at the top, Gush decks have losing win percentages against 4 different archetypes.
Also, once again, Oath performs much better in paper (not simply on paper) than it does on MTGO.
Going by record, Combo went 19 -16 against Gush and one of those matches was Dave Kaplan scooping to Nick Cummings (so actually 18-17). I don't think you can definitively say that this is a weakness of the archetype - in other events, Gush has posted positive results against Storm
That's why I said "According to the table at the top," and not "According to the table at the top, which tells us a definitive result..."
Any particular tournament result is only a snapshot, and never the definitive statement.
That said, both this result and the May MTGO P9 result show Combo having a virtually identical match win percentage against Gush decks. So, if we pair the most recent and largest tournaments together, it does look like a soft spot, at least, according to recent results.
I'm not sure how the perception that "Combo beats Gush" got started but that hasn't been true in my experience with the deck
Just to be clear, calling a matchup soft or weak is not the same thing as saying "X beats Y." Beats is too strong of a statement.
This highlights one of the weaknesses of aggregating all Gush decks. Different Gush decks have better and worse DPS matchups.
At one extreme, Doomsday has a fantastic DPS matchup, so if you disaggregate Doomsday and other Gush decks, that should reduce Gush decks overall win%. At the other extreme, Sylvan Mentor decks, which have fewer countermagic than you just cited (your deck had only 3 Missteps), and more mana, are softer to combo, because they have more mana and less countermagic.
Also, I think it's important to note that Combo decks themselves vary, both in design and skill of the pilot, probably more than any other archetype. It's my assessment that combo decks with 3-4 Defense Grids and/or City of Solitude are much better positioned to combat Gush decks. Gush decks tend to have fewer mana sources, making Defense Grid more powerful, and both cards elide Fluster/Trap/Misstep/Pyroblast, a fact that Brian Kelly and others have pointed out on numerous occasions.
I think Storm, anchored by Gird/City, is an excellent choice for attacking metagames filled with Brian Kelly type decks and/or Aggro-Control Gush decks.
It seems like the paper metagame has fewer Gush decks compared to Online, which is one of Oath's worse matchups. I'm not surprised it did better than it's done in the MTGO P9 tournaments, given this.
I was trying to point out the fact that Oath decks are hugely disadvantaged on MTGO, because you can't use the Bomberman loop, and therefore the best Oath deck is not viable. We should expect Oath to do much better on paper for that reason alone.
As for your premise that Gush is a smaller part of the paper metagame, I'm not sure that's actually true. The tournament had 32% Gush decks in the field, which isn't really that far from the 38% that showed up in the last MTGO P9 event. Moreover, the MTGO Dailies for June had 30% reported Gush decks so far. Granted, that's a small sample size, but I wouldn't be surprised if Gush decks are actually under 30% of MTGO daily results by the end of June, would you? I think it's gonna be closer to 25% than 30%, based upon the fact that if you take out 6/2 results, Gush is only 24.32% of MTGO daily results so far...
Finally, while I realize that the MTGO data you've compiled has Oath showing a soft performance against Gush decks, we shouldn't forget that Oath won the last two Vintage Championships and the Asian Vintage Championship in fields with enormous amounts of Gush decks. So, even though there is some data showing that Oath is a dog to Gush, there are salient data points - like the last two Vintage Championships - that suggest that Oath can perform very well in a Sea of Gush.
There are good reasons for that. Sylvan Library and Top actually help Oath decks recoup virtual card advantage, and compete with the Gush engine. Didn't Rich Shay crush a bunch of Gush decks with Odd Oath a few months ago as well? Oath has certainly proven that it can compete with Gush decks, despite the aggregate P9 data.
Some people think that Gush decks can adapt to beat Eldrazi, but I am more skeptical. I think the Eldrazi menace is much more resilient and disruptive than it appears (what I saw Paul Mastriano do to Craig Berry was insane - with Spirit in play, and using blink and TKS to exile his draws in his draw step for a close to hard lock, despite an opposing Moat). And attacking the white version may be much less effectual against the Shop or Jaco's version.
I split my two matches against White Eldrazi (punting one of them) - Adding Mystical Tutor and Balance to complement the Walkers and Swords is pretty strong. Mindbreak Trap also can do work against their most broken openers. Alternatively, JVP is quite good if you can get him active, Baleful Strix is quite strong against them. Gush can definitely be built to beat Eldrazi and the Gush decks that did well made the necessary adjustments. That doesn't mean that Eldrazi is not a powerful deck - it certainly is.
Jaco's version is likely much weaker against Mentor. The reason White Eldrazi has a strong Mentor matchup is the combination of Spheres and the big threats. Without the Spheres, Mentor can just go nuts and the deck is more susceptible to Supreme Verdict, which commonly sees play out of Mentor SBs.
Not trying to start anything - just my two cents based on the testing I've done with Gush Mentor and looking at the decklists.
Sure - I mean, metagames are dynamic. It's reasonable to expect to see people find answers to the threats they face, but we should also anticipate a counter-response, etc.
When I say that I am skeptical that Gush decks can "adapt to beat Eldrazi," I meant that I think the Eldrazi decks are resilient and disruptive enough to hang in there in the long run, and aren't likely to reach a point where the Gush decks "solve" them definitively and then they go away.
In other words, I was contesting the notion -- that some were intimating -- that Gush decks will find the answer, and then Eldrazi will fade away - a minor blip on the path to eventual Gush dominance. I think Eldrazi is here to stay.
Can Gush be beaten? Of course, just as Lodestone Shops could be beaten. It's just that the tradeoffs are too severe given the decks percentage of the metagame.
It's that really empirically supportable? As I said at the beginning, your table has Gush decks with unfavorable win % against 4 different archetypes. If the tradeoffs to beating Gush were so severe, then why is it that so many archetypes seem to able to do it?
Lodestone Golem, on the other hand, was not only restricted because it was difficult to beat, but because it created miserable game play and non-interactive games. Gush is slow, and creates highly interactive games.
You may consider that emblematic of a balanced metagame, but it makes if very difficult to chose something outside of the established paradigm.
If there are four archetypes with winning %ages against Gush decks, at a minimum, that means we have a 5 archetype metagame. Gush decks are good against other blue control decks, but soft to Storm, Shops, Eldrazi and Dredge. It should be noted that Humans also won the BOM in a top 4 of 3 Gush decks, so we might add that too...
That seems like a pretty balanced format to me, and I think the format is more open than you are giving it credit. I don't know if it's "real" or not but Rich Shay just 4-0ed a daily with Control Slaver. I see people brewing up some pretty radical stuff recently. I think the format is in a period of upheaval rather than the consolidation toward long term Gush dominance. We'll know more a few months from now, but the arguments that I made a few months back that we needed to wait and see how this metagame plays out look more accurate than the alternative.