How do I beat Karn, the Great Creator
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@chubbyrain said in How do I beat Karn, the Great Creator:
You haven't substantiated any of your positions. You haven't provided tournament results. You haven't mentioned any records. You've cited "testing" but what does that consist of? Who are you playing against? Are you competing in large scale events against competent opponents who have posted consistent finishes with their lists? Tell me why I should consider what you are saying over literally everything else I have seen about the format.
Your newest post doesn't do this either.
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@shopsaholic The newest post doesn't but I wrote an article which looked at the metagame and data sets from the current meta. I mentioned my stream, which people can find if they want. You just can't keep repeating the same data over and over, post after post, if it gets ignored.
I do recognize that in the course of this, the quality has deteriorated and I regret that. I will focus less on posts like this and more on articles-type posts like the London piece, in an effort to generate more positive content.
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@chubbyrain In all seriousness, sorry for the trolling.
Also, while I appreciate the data analysis, I think there's some flaw in the approach, as I stated in my earlier post. If the same decks that are having trouble vs karn (because they rely on artifact activations and karn is a non-artifact null rod), then does the data show Karn is really a problem, or does it show that he's doing what he was intended to do and the adherence to artifact-dependent decks is the problem? I think the latter, and I think your data supports BOTH positions equally. The data shows how Karn and Narset are fairing in metas with decks that Karn and Narset are designed to prey on. So when the data shows that the cards are acheiving this goal, but the meta is still the same decks vs decks now using these 2 cards, what is the data really telling us? It could be a signal that the cards are a problem, but it could also suggest it's time to put down PO and aggro shops and find entirely new decks to shift the meta towards. If you want to say Karn is a problem for the CURRENT metagame (that's basically xerox, PO, aggro shops, and a couple survival), then I'll agree with that. But I don't see that as a problem. We can adapt and find different strategies as opposed to running the same metagame decks and wondering why it's not working (not saying YOU are doing that, per se).
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@thewhitedragon69 the issue I find is that by making a deck not soft to Karn, it becomes weak to blue.
I’m fine with that as you can’t have it both ways. But some players want to hedge against everything.
Basically do you want to beat Karn? You can but you’d be a dog to 50% of the meta running blue. If you don’t want to lost to blue, then lose to Karn.
I’m fine with those being the choices, but it seems like others aren’t.
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@naixin It may pan out that way, but I think that is boxing yourself in. Why do you have to suck vs blue to beat Karn and vice versa? Are there no options that beat both? I believe there are no CURRENT options as far as netdeckable decks that do both well - but I don't think there's no possible deck that can do both.
I think with looking beyond blue, you can beat blue and narset and also shops and karn. Have I built said deck yet? Maybe, maybe not. I don't seem to have as much trouble against resolved karns, but I also don't build mox-dependent decks either. I tend to run more in the null-rod category, which happen to stifle turbo-karn and PO.
In general, I just think seeing vintage as only 4 viable decks and ignoring everything else by thinking you HAVE to play one of those 4 decks to be competitive is flawed and disallows you to see answers that are possible. I'm not talking about building a narset hate deck and losing to karn or a karn hate deck and losing to narset. I'm talking about starting from scratch and making something that can fight both. That takes work, but I'm not so convinced it can't be done. The data doesn't show that. The data shows 90% of decks trying to ramrod the same strategies into a brick wall and then being confused about why they can't break through.
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I think focusing on Karn is a mistake. You should focus more on beating “shops” or “Eldrazi” as decks, and take into account that Karn is part of their strategies.
When Shops pilots used to get blown out by Hurkyl’s Recall in the “dark ages of Vintage”, there were players who focused on beating Hurkyl’s with things like Null Brooch or Defense Grid. That didn’t work out too well.
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Thank you for the apology. I apologize as well.
The data analysis is a reflection of what is, though there can be many factors that account for that and interpretations can vary. There's absolutely no problem with talking about those factors and happy to discuss interpretations in good faith.
The data suggests that players are already doing what you said. PO has virtually disappeared from the metagame. There was one pilot in the last Challenge and they were running 4 Narsets and 3 Karns. As for what drives innovation in formats, it's always a mix of player types right? You have players that play Vintage more rarely and will net decks...same with Standard and Modern. You have archetype experts that will play the same deck every week. You have players that will switch back and forth if they can between similar styles. You have players that will switch between wildly divergent styles. You have players that will play incredibly off-the-wall builds and brews.
In my experience, the last type isn't as rare is people think. It's just that a lot of brews don't work out so it looks like people don't brew as much. The problem is that you can't really prove a negative. You can't prove that there isn't a solution to Narset, Karn, Mentor, and Trinisphere in the metagame (I added in a couple of potential unrestrictions. fingers crossed)
I think from a theoretical standpoint, it's going to be hard to break from the format's constraints. You say Karn and Narset are preying on decks they were designed to prey on. They also gain a lot from being in this format. Karn grabbing Time Vault is a pretty huge upgrade over Lattice in Legacy. Narset being able to hit Moxen, Ancestral, Draw 7's, Time Walk...pick your busted noncreature, nonland card...
These Planeswalkers are structurally much more powerful than in Legacy (where both are seeing significant play) and that's part of the issue with trying to opt out of the Blue/Bazaar/Colorless meta. You often end up playing slightly better versions of Legacy decks (like Jund, various Green, White, Black decks), and it just feels like the gap between this and the "Vintage" decks has increased considerably.
I'll keep up with a rotation of decks. My next list is BUG Fish with Rodney. Not only do I get to run Green Sun's Zenith to find them, I get to find Green Sun's Zenith off of Narset. It's like finding a creature... XD
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@desolutionist I tend to build my decks to fight/go under strategies. Shops fighting hurkylls is a great example of fighting on the wrong axis. Karn tends to be in mana-ramp decks. Hitting the mana ramp helps. Narset tends to be in blue decks fighting blue decks, where "draw" is their axis. Hit the draw mechanic/dodge using so much draw.
Could a blood moon deck with SSG, tombs, ESG, stop the karn/shop ramp? Maybe. Would be decent vs bazaar as well if you could consistently drop a turn 1 moon effect. Could that same deck run grudges, rebs, rods, and other things? Sure. Can it run quick, sizable creatures to be a decent clock as well? Sure. Would this type of deck work overall? I dunno, maybe. Maybe not. Worth a try.
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@thewhitedragon69 said in How do I beat Karn, the Great Creator:
@desolutionist I tend to build my decks to fight/go under strategies. Shops fighting hurkylls is a great example of fighting on the wrong axis. Karn tends to be in mana-ramp decks. Hitting the mana ramp helps. Narset tends to be in blue decks fighting blue decks, where "draw" is their axis. Hit the draw mechanic/dodge using so much draw.
Could a blood moon deck with SSG, tombs, ESG, stop the karn/shop ramp? Maybe. Would be decent vs bazaar as well if you could consistently drop a turn 1 moon effect. Could that same deck run grudges, rebs, rods, and other things? Sure. Can it run quick, sizable creatures to be a decent clock as well? Sure. Would this type of deck work overall? I dunno, maybe. Maybe not. Worth a try.
Regarding blood moon style lists, Troy Sands took down an NYSE Qualifier with a r/w list, but also implemented Karn of its own as additional null rods and access to an artifact toolbox.
Not sure if that's what you are aiming at there, @Thewhitedragon69.
For quick reference, his list is reposted below:
Troy Sands
Deck Name: Crazy 8s4 City of Traitors
4 Ancient Tomb
2 Arid Mesa
2 Plateau
5 Mountain
1 Plains
1 Black Lotus
1 Mox Ruby
1 Lotus petal
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Goblin Rabblemaster
4 Legion Warboss
2 Hazoret the Fervent
4 Magus of the Moon
4 Blood Moon
4 Stony Silence
4 Null Rod
4 Karn, the Great Creator
2 Ensnaring Bridge
3 Fiery Confluence<Sideboard>
1 Trinisphere
1 Chalice of the Void
1 Mox Pearl
1 Black Vise
1 Ensnaring Bridge
1 Mycosynth Lattice
1 Eidolon of Rhetoric
4 Containment Priest
4 Rest in PeaceI played against this deck in the swiss rounds. I was on Stax and got locked out.
I also saw this deck win off of a mycosynth lattice lockout via black vise.
Regarding beating Karn specifically, I am starting to see a number of players in my local area starting to swap out a number of mental missteps for either spell pierce or ceremonious rejection.
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He should splash for green so that he can play all 16 Null Rod effect.
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Didn't read the latest posts, but just wanted to say survival has changed a lot in terms of dealing with artifacts with horizons. It was indeed bad against karn considering the plan of 'creature decks are good against pw'. Now I feel it's at least 50-50 with ouphe and the green force. Karn decks rely too much on artifact mana, which makes it very vulnerable to null rod effects.
Anyway, as usually happens with new dominant decks that are different than what is out there, the solution is to adapt to it. I'm not saying null rod beats karn on it's own, but if karn isn't fast enough and we have some pressure, it usually is. Maybe we even have to run more copies so that we have chances of drawing naturally, as survival -> tutor -> ouphe takes a while to get online. Specially if they attack our mana.
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Survival and BUG Fish gained a lot from Horizons. We'll see how the Karn decks adapt now
That said, I'm hesitant to play Survival if Dredge with Leylines and Green Forces picks up.
Edit: and the format still feels like a RNG clusterf*** that is still mostly decided by die rolls and opening hands (plus knowledge of the opponent's deck choice). Ouphe does so much more on the play than the draw. An algorithm can process most Dredge openers. Forces have always felt terrible to play with on both sides and the blowout potential of the Green Force is absurd. Watching Rich "counter" a Paradoxical Outcome for two by destroying both targets for a 0 mana 3 for 2 out of Dredge was pretty ridiculous. Narset and Karn negate opening hands by themselves and can end games shortly after. Remember when Chalice was restricted because the DCI wanted players to play with their Moxen? Now, based on the die roll, you frequently have one player with access to Moxen or not in a format that is increasingly defined by Tempo. You have one player with access to card draw or not. You can try not to play the game, but then you tend not to have access to Moxen or card draw and lose to those mechanics which have been pushed by the mistakes of the past.
The decisions in the format and relevant turns in the format are diminishing set by set.
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@chikararyuu That's exactly what I'm talking about - not that deck specifically, but that idea. I think the karn/narset decks are opening up room for new archetypes by preying on the traditional top decks. And the thing I love is that they aren't preying on the top decks as decklists, they are doing it by preying on the mechanics (draw and fast mana). THAT is how you take down top decks - take out their main mechanics, not the specific cards 1-for-1. Fancy cars are shit when you take out the engine and all their bells and whistles become garbage at that point. To @ChubbyRain 's point, that particular NYSE list does look like a beefed up Legacy deck. (not that I mind that).
@GutoCmtt This is what I was talking about (vs. Karn). Artifact mana is their achilles heel. Hit their acceleration and they are hurting severely. Just need to be sure you have the clock to capitalize on the time bought.
@chubbyrain Looks like my analysis had a bit of merit - decks adapting their strategies or becoming new decks entirely are answering the Karn/Narset menaces. Utilizing the tools themselves is not even a problem because they are tools specifically designed to beat the top mechanics. The new decks using them are not hurt by them so much. MH1 added some additional tools, but we'd known about FoV and its potential for weeks now. Even not being play legal, it's been in MtGO for a minute, and I've been decktesting with it since it was spoiled. It's just my guess, but I think we'll end up with some new "pillars" if they leave narset and karn unrestricted, and I will happy dance all day if that happens. The top decks of old are going to be facing obstacles they can not easily handle, and I suspect it will change the landscape for the better.
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Testing the Dredge deck in preparation for the Challenge yesterday, I never lost to any Karn deck. The Dredge deck is insanely good against the Karn deck because:
- The density of countermagic
- Force of Vigor
- Misstep on Key
- Force of Negation for Karn
Honestly, I would Force of Negation Grim Monolith for Tempo if I knew I was winning the next turn.
Basically, the only way that they could beat me was to land an early Sphere through my net of countermagic AND waste the Bazaar so I couldn't dredge fast enough.
That's why I included a Dakmor Salvage in my SB, to play Force of Vigor through a Sphere.
Also, Narset is a joke against the Dredge deck. It does almost nothing, since you can dredge through it.
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Just one deck with Karns (a blue one) in the the top16 of the latest challenge. Lots of Dredge, BUG and Xerox instead.
https://magic.wizards.com/en/articles/archive/mtgo-standings/vintage-challenge-2019-06-09
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Not a single person in that tournament played Eldrazi, the best deck in the format.
Two Dark Petition decks from the 1980’s.
The rest is all xerox.
Definitely not a good representation of vintage. Not trying to be condescending either, but definitely looks like a small sample size considering the absence of Oath and Eldrazi and over representation of Xerox in top 32.
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True, but why do the people not play the best deck in the format? Anyway, after the sky has fallen a few times the last couple of weeks with first Narset and then Karn dominating the format is it now Pitch Dredge? I for my part wait and see how the format will adjust.
