[MH1] Collected Conjuring
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Well, this reads Tinker + Time Walk right there
But in reality what are we looking for here, 4 mana for a cantrip and maybe another card? Is there any changes to decks that this can abuse? I mean, it's quite powerful for a 4 CMC sorcery, but my guess is that it will fizzle more than be broken.
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Only hitting sorceries is so annoying because this misses all the good draw spells. Although it is one more way to try to make Ancestral Vision work.
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Casts wheel effects, plus all the living end, restore balance sorta stuff too, so that's ok.
Part of me saw this and thought doomsday piles, but that just seems like a lot of extra work.
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I always forget the Ancestral Vision / Restore Balance. This seems better than the options we had until now - probably on par with [[As Foretold]].
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Seems interesting in a list with 4 Regrowth. Gonna need those green cards for your Force of Vigor anyways.
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@fsecco said in [MH1] Collected Conjuring:
...but my guess is that it will fizzle more than be broken.
Never particularly been a fan of guessing. I built a calculator for Narset to help with deckbuilding and it was pretty easy to modify it a bit for Collected Conjuring. The results are always up to interpretation but here are the odds of hitting at least 1 and at least 2 cards with this card.
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@chubbyrain Cool. You took what list for that calculation? My point was also that using this to play 2 Preordain is not that great, so I count that as an underwhelming use - but not technically a fizzle.
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@fsecco It's variable, based on a hypergeometric distribution and a 60 card deck. The x axis is how many successes you have in your deck, whatever you consider to be a success. The y axis is the probability of hitting at that number of successes. Your whiff rate is 1 - the blue line (odds of hitting 1 or more card). Your "max value" is the red line (odds of hitting two or more cards). Not a perfect approximation but
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If you are more interested with a relatively low number of successes, then here is that portion of the graph. I was more interested in hitting 2 or more spells when I made it (similar to the Collected Company question, which puts you at 30 creatures for a 90% chance of hitting 2).
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@chubbyrain The thing is most Vintage decks will have what, 8-10 hits for this? Xerox has 4 Preordain, Time Walk, Merchant Scroll, Gitaxian Probe, Ponder. PO has those + Tinker, DT and Will. Am I forgetting something?
So you have something like 25% of a chance of this hitting 2, is that it? Yeah, that fizzles a LOT. -
@fsecco Didn't really dedicate much thought to this card in particular, honestly. This particular mechanic (look at the top X cards of your deck and choose certain card types) comes up often so I just made a google sheet to help me and I thought I would share the numbers in this thread to help people with their evaluations. If you don't think it's worth exploring at those numbers, fair enough, but at least you have something concrete to go on.
If I was intrigued by this card, I would probably grouse about the laziness of just plugging it an existing shell without trying to build around it, but these effects just interact so poorly in a format with such a large percentage of Sphere effects. Probably a cool card in Modern though. Triggers Arclight Phoenix by itself and practically flips a Thing in the Ice. Or jam some Pyromancer's Ascensions and Baral's. Fun times.
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@chubbyrain oh don't get me wrong, I'm not fond of the card either - and sure, I also think you need to build around this, which your numbers just showed. I just think this is one of the two mechanics they are trying to push in the last few sets that always scratches the surface but it's never enough to really be good (the other being the "red draw" mechanic of exiling from the top).
