[Podcast] SMIP # 89: War of the Spark Vintage Predictions


0:01:00: Announcements
0:05:40: VSL Season 9 Finals
0:45:40: Bolas’s Citadel
0:53:40: Jace, Weilder of Mysteries
0:57:16: Flux Channeler
1:02:40: Dreadhorde Arcanist
1:19:30: Burning Prophet
1:23:50: Teferi, Time Raveler
1:40:25: Karn, the Great Creator
1:56:03: Narset, Parter of Veils
2:01:57: Saheeli, Sublime Artificer
2:08:36: Blast Zone
2:15:55: Return to Nature
2:19:18: Price of Betrayal
2:22:35: Dovin’s Veto
2:26:21: Ral, Storm Conduit
2:31:16: Tomik, Distinguished Advokist
2:37:00: Deliver Unto Evil
2:42:05: Dovin, Hand of Control
2:54:28: Ashiok, Dream Render
3:06:16: God-Pharaoh’s Statue
3:10:48: Ugin, the Ineffable
Total runtime: 3:18:06
Show Notes
– War of the Spark Visual Spoiler

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Loved the episode. This set looks so hard to predict. So many playables and awesome cards. Probably a set that'll change how Vintage plays out in the following months. I love it.

Just one thing I missed from your Bolas's Citadel analysis: Cage and Lavinia outright stop it. So that makes it have a lot of built-in hate in the format, which can hinder its usage.

I like your take on Ashiok in this episode. I do think that as many decks lean on very few cards that can win the game and a lot of singletons, mill of Ashioks nature starts to sit in a previously unexplored space and throws a bit of the conventional wisdom about mill out the window. I say this because I have won several drafts in a row with Ashiok just because you hit enough cards with the-1 that I have stripped my opponents wincons. Granted the formats are night and day but the card does so much more and attacks on so many other angles in vintage that it just feels like it should be heavily considered.

@protoaddict said in [Podcast] SMIP # 89: War of the Spark Vintage Predictions:

I say this because I have won several drafts in a row with Ashiok just because you hit enough cards with the-1 that I have stripped my opponents wincons.

But that's a characteristic of War of the Spark draft/sealed. Ashiok is a must answer (since decks have 40 cards only) and the format is VERY slow and with a low number bombs/threats (specially in sealed), so you can mill a bunch of important stuff with him. I won a sealed with Ashiok, Teferi's Time Twist and Command the Dreadhorde to protect/recur him. 😛
In vintage I have no idea if Ashiok is fast/disruptive enough - and maybe we'll take some time to discover since Narset seems to have all the blue attention right now, but I was surprised and interested by Steve's logic.

last edited by fsecco

The thing is that since mill is so infrequently used in this format unless its all at once like grindstone, and turn over turn graveyard wipes on top of that are mostly unheard of, I'm not sure you can even compare this to anything that was available in the format prior , especially compounded with all the other stuff it does.

Ashiok does not have to be fast enough against other decks, you are basically playing percentages. You know that your opponents deck has x out of Y cards that can win the game and if they were all removed you would have inevitability. In a deck like shops this number represents probably close to half the deck, where as in a deck like oath it is a handful of cards. And yes you cannot control what you mill with any reliability, but you also cannot control what your deck shuffles to. There is an element of randomness and luck in all things in this game and I just think this opens up a new vector.

I would not say any of this if that was all Ashiok did, but turning off fetchs and tutors and the graveyard all at once is huge game for one card to have in vintage outside of the shops match, so I expect him to be a player once someone cracks the code of what shell he should be in.

@protoaddict the thing is random cards are always a bad. I guess the exception is Gamble, and that's it. But yeah, its hard to know and that's why Steven's statement is such a surprise. 🙂

@Smmenen is there any article (yours or from others) that elaborates on the theory that a card is as powerful as the number of zone changes it produces? It'd be a great theoretical read ❤

As someone who plays every format, I say you hit the nail on the head by calling the set transformative. I think we are just starting to feel the effects of the set and it'll take a long time to fully land in Vintage. I sincerely believe that we may not be in Kansas anymore.

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