So I think it is fair to say that War of the Spark is shaping up to have at least the potential to affect vintage in a way very few sets have in the past. There are a number of cards that, while still untested, have huge potential to shake up the fundamentals of the format, including:

Ashiok, Dream Render
Karn, the Great Creator
Jace, Wielder of Mysteries
Bolas's Citadel
Teferi, Time Raveler
Dovin, Hand of Control
Saheeli, Sublime Artificer

Some of these cards have very profound effects that attack core ways the format functions, including completely turning off counter magic, Stoping tutoring, etc. Some of these effects are not new, but in many cases being on a walker that can be windmilled out and has other utility has made them far more viable than they would have been otherwise.

Which leads me to the question, how much is too much? Magic is a living game and every release has the potential to change the game, but how much is too much at once? I'm trying to imagine what the format looks like with people having to pair back fetch land use or not rely on counterspells and it truly looks very different.

The London Mulligan really shakes things up already. The LM favors explosive draws. Lavinia and Shops both make you want to run more lands. Deckbuilding is really damned dichotomous right now.

So, if we're going to have big changes, now is the time.

The Walkers will change the format to some degree, but I highly doubt it does anything more than some of the powerful blocks, like Khans and Zendikar. Vintage will continue to chug along.

As excited as I am for this set, I don't think Vintage will change too much. I have a hard time believing the fundamental building blocks of Vintage will disappear due to these new printings. I think it's more likely that one of 3 things will happen.

1. New card slots into an existing archetype
2. New card creates a new archetype that's fringe playable
3. New card is messed around with for a few weeks, then fades away

I think as high as the power level of this set has been, Khans probably will have changed Vintage on a fundamental level more than the upcoming set will. As someone said, the london mulligan rule has the potential to change things more!

Vintage has been a haven for old fuddy-duddies who like the comfort of a format that doesn't change much. However, enthusiasm for T1 in my neck of the woods seems to have dwindled considerably, so anything that might stir up interest I view as a good thing.

This spring is one of the most interesting times in Magic's long hstory.

We have War of the Spark, with so many planeswalker (including a slightly different design approach) cards that ask a lot of questions.

We have the London mulligan rule, which if adopted will alter the way the game is played and shift how we evaluate certain cards.

We have the upcoming Modern Horizons set, which has the potiential to print new cards that carry effects that will easily find a home in Vintage.

It is a fascinating time to be a magic player.
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I have been a bit bored with Vintage and this set is just what the format needs right now. There are just so many possibilities. I am very excited to start messing around with deck building and just try new stuff.

So answering the op question: there isn't such a thing as too much shake up.

Also this set does very little for Vintage IMO. Fetches, CotV, Mentor and Delve spells were way more impactful. The most important cards are Citadel, Teferi and Karn so far and none of them are format-defining-broken. Maybe Citadel if anyone figures out the right list for it. I don't think Teferi will be important like Dack Fayden.

The London Mulligan will probably shake up the format much more than this set.

How much shake up is too much

$200 worth. If I have to spend more than $200 because a new set comes out, I'll be vaguely annoyed before doing it anyway.

@thecravenone I can't remember a time where this happened though. Maybe when JVP was released but he wasn't an immediate 4-of anywhere anyway.

@hrishi I think there are some cards that will have a longterm impact on Vintage. Paradoxical Outcome took a year to develop into a real deck. Survival took a while after Hollow One was released as well. Deck creation is a very time consuming exercise in Vintage and there are very good card to seed that creation, it just may take a year or 2.

@moorebrother1 Absolutely, and I really hope archetypes emerge which are built around these new cards. I definitely think Bolas' Citadel is one such card, and is definitely the one I want to build an archetype around when it gets released. I more just mean I don't think this set will shake up Vintage too much. We'll hopefully get a few new archetypes and a few new toys in existing ones.