Here is the analysis of Sphinx in Dredge, analytic (not simulated)

p0 below represents prob of having bazaar on the play, p1 on the draw.

Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Play

0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%

0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.33%

0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.37%

0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.41%

0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.45%

1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%

1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.27%

1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.31%

1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.34%

1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.38%

2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%

2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.05%

2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.08%

2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.12%

2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.15%

3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%

3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.65%

3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.68%

3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.7%

3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.73%

4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%

4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.05%

4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.07%

4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.09%

4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.11%

Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Draw

0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%

0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.3% p1=88.4%

0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.09% p1=88.51%

0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=85.86% p1=88.61%

0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.16% p1=88.72%

1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%

1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.52% p1=90.33%

1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.33% p1=90.42%

1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.41% p1=90.51%

1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.36% p1=90.61%

2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%

2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.57% p1=92.1%

2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.54% p1=92.18%

2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.51% p1=92.26%

2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.44% p1=92.34%

3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%

3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.47% p1=93.69%

3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.44% p1=93.76%

3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.41% p1=93.82%

3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.37% p1=93.89%

4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%

4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.11% p1=95.08%

4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.08% p1=95.13%

4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.06% p1=95.19%

4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.03% p1=95.24%