This doesn't seem that good in pitch dredge? You still get almost-guaranteed Bazaar turn 1 but does the deck need more blue cards?

@protoaddct said in [RNA] Sphinx of Foresight:

Like yes drawing JTMS in a topdeck war is better, but you can only run so many of them and he does not provide the other utility.

One thing to consider when you say you can play this alongside Jace is not just the planeswalker rule aspect, but how many 4 drops you're planning on playing.

I think people are really underestimating this card once you are passed keep/mull decisions. Its a 4/4 for 4 with evasion. Considering fetches, probes, ancient tombs etc this is a 3-4 turn clock with evasion that fixes card draws and it potentially comes down on turn 1 or 2 (most likely by 3).

I think any deck that plays bazaar want's this guy. I don't run matlab buy I think at a certain point in muligans (somwhere around 5) revealing this is better than going further as far as finding a bazaar and having a keepable hand.
Survival wan't this because its a blue card thats a dude and is good.

This card was created to support the best of one matches in Arena. I am on the fence on if this could be remotely playable in Vintage. If you run Sensei's Top or Preordain you gain more advantage because of the continued use of top or just having a cantrip and adding a card to the graveyard.

I was thinking about a blue control deck or maybe StandStill but the upside of the card is just not good enough in a format with Pyroblast and Swords to Plowshares. I want to like this card and I would play it in a Modern Blue Moon deck.

last edited by moorebrother1

@moorebrother1 said in [RNA] Sphinx of Foresight:

This card was created to support the best of one matches in Arena. I am on the fence on if this could be remotely playable in Vintage. If you run Sensei's Top or Preordain you gain more advantage because of the continued use of top or just having a cantrip and adding a card to the graveyard.

Both of these cards cost mana, can be countered by most counterspells, cannot be used to kill your opponent, and do not happen in the set up phase of the game. I find that this is scarcely an apt comparison.

I think this card is strong enough that it could spawn new deck types and change existing ones pretty drastically. This card plays really nicely with Street Wraith which is fringe playable in dredge and it actually makes me wonder if a leyline of anticipation deck could not come back where you can use this to set up as well as get rid of dead leylines.

My prediction so far is that we see this in a pitch dredge list that trys to go off turn one more consistently in game one. Probe, Street wraith, free counters, using the extra 3 cards you see and potentially bury to set up bigger potential turn one dread returns.

@protoaddct That is good in theory, but that type of deck usually either really wins or really loses.

I worked with my brother for most of October to get a fast Dredge deck ready for Eternal Weekend and they are way too inconsistent to be played at large events.

Maybe you can win a league or top 8 a challenge but I cannot see a deck like that lasting 8 or 10 rounds of game play.

last edited by moorebrother1

I'm highly skeptical that this card will be good in pitch Dredge. I will certainly try it because its an interesting effect, but my gut says no. As I initially pointed out, its not better than Serum Powder at finding Bazaar so you can't realistically use it in that function. Its only real function is helping your top decks, and Dredge wants to throw its entire deck in its graveyard so that isn't really helping much of anything in game 1. Maybe its good enough in games 2/3 that its playable because it can help you keep some non-Bazaar hands and board out your Powders, but that's its really only niche. 2UU also makes it virtually uncastable in Dredge so the other print on the card is fairly irrelevant.

last edited by vaughnbros

@vaughnbros I don't disagree entirely with you, but note it's a 4/4 flying body so it can be used with Dread Return for those final points of damage in a convoluted board against Shops or Mentor or Eldrazi.

@vaughnbros If all this card does in most match ups is digs you closer to a piece of hate you need, or a second bazaar, or just gets rid of stuff you don't need turn one in some number of game, I think it may have paid for itself.

I don't cards like these that mess with the rules (or the shelter if that makes sense) of the game - cards like the Leylines, Chancellor of the Annex and, especially, Serum Powder.

I don't think - and don't hope - that this is good enough to see play, but I'm sure it will be tested.

Another thing I noticed: this says YOUR first upkeep. So if you're on the draw you know what you're playing against, which makes the Scry 3 even more potent.

@protoaddct

Or just play more cards that you do want to see.

@vaughnbros said in [RNA] Sphinx of Foresight:

@protoaddct

Or just play more cards that you do want to see.

There are plenty of great lists out there that play tons of situational cards, either be it time based or matchup based or other.

Most decks do not want a blightsteel in hand, but they still play it
Many decks may not want tinker with no artifacts in hand, they still play it
Many decks may not want Countermagic against dredge, still play it
Many decks may not want to draw extra leylines past the first, still play them

Every deck plays only the cards they want to see, its just a matter of when and how which this card helps answer.

Here is the analysis of Sphinx in Dredge, analytic (not simulated)
p0 below represents prob of having bazaar on the play, p1 on the draw.

Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Play
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.33%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.37%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.41%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.45%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.27%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.31%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.34%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.38%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.05%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.08%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.12%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.15%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.65%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.68%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.7%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.73%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.05%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.07%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.09%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.11%
Strategy: Max prob Bazaar on Draw
0 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=86.5% p1=88.29%
0 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=86.3% p1=88.4%
0 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=86.09% p1=88.51%
0 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=85.86% p1=88.61%
0 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=86.16% p1=88.72%
1 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=88.7% p1=90.23%
1 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=88.52% p1=90.33%
1 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=88.33% p1=90.42%
1 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=88.41% p1=90.51%
1 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=88.36% p1=90.61%
2 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=90.73% p1=92.02%
2 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=90.57% p1=92.1%
2 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=90.54% p1=92.18%
2 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=90.51% p1=92.26%
2 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=90.44% p1=92.34%
3 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=92.56% p1=93.63%
3 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=92.47% p1=93.69%
3 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=92.44% p1=93.76%
3 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=92.41% p1=93.82%
3 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=92.37% p1=93.89%
4 powder, 0 Sphinx: p0=94.17% p1=95.03%
4 powder, 1 Sphinx: p0=94.11% p1=95.08%
4 powder, 2 Sphinx: p0=94.08% p1=95.13%
4 powder, 3 Sphinx: p0=94.06% p1=95.19%
4 powder, 4 Sphinx: p0=94.03% p1=95.24%

last edited by bactgudz

@bactgudz I don't get why the % os Bazaar on the play reduces with more Sphinx on the second table.

@fsecco The strategy in the second table is to maximize the probability of having bazaar on the draw (p1). This may be accomplished (and we see it sometimes is in analysis) by lowering your chance of having it in your opener but increasing the chance it is on the top of your deck. For instance. If I have a 6 card hand, 1 powder, 3 sphinxes, do I mull or scry 10?

last edited by bactgudz

@bactgudz oh, you're calculating that with the cards in your hand, not in the deck. I thought the numbers of the cards were how many you had in your deck.

@fsecco
No, those are counts of cards in your deck...
Take the example of having 4 powder and 4 sphixes in your deck. Sphinx does nothing to increase your chance of having bazaar on the play, it only helps you on have it on the draw (or equivalently turn 2 of the play)...so when you have BOTH powder and sphinx in your deck, you need to decide on a mulligan strategy:
-Do I max the prob I have it on the play?
-Or do I max the prob I have it on the draw (or equivalently by turn 2 on the play)
This is why there are two tables.

last edited by bactgudz

@bactgudz

Thanks for calculating the specifics. So that's 0.08% if we stick with the normal dredge mulligan strategy, and 0.21% if we revise our strategy to draw it off the top.

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