@wagner I noticed that right when the card was spoiled. I still think you run Thalia and Lavinia in the same deck because games where you don't draw one you'll want the other for density of relevant cheap drops. The first clause on Lavinia is still in effect for force of will FYI. It only really affects moxen that your opponent may drop and those moxen can't ramp out big spells anyway.
There are a lot of comparisons to Chalice of the Void being thrown around here. Everyone seems to be taking it as a given that this is playable consistently on Turn 1.
Has anyone run the statistical analysis on this?
To cast this T1, you need an on-color Mox (2), Lotus or Petal + land + Lavinia in your opening hand. This is probably the most common set of accelerants you’ll see in a deck running Lavinia.
What is the statistical probability of this in an opener?
How far are you willing to mulligan to try to land this? 5?
How sure are you that T1 Lavinia is backbreaking enough to win the game?
Sure, Chrome or Diamond are possibilities, but these still seem a stretch. Diamond requires an additional land, so you’re still looking at a specific set of 4 cards (land, land, diamond, Lavinia) in your opening hand to cast it. Chrome is maybe more viable, but you’re going to need to run 4x Chrome to maximize this probability and that just seems bad for later in the game.
Running 4x RG Manamorphose in a deck to cast a UW spell on T1 on off color Moxen? Is this worth it?
People have mentioned being able to reliably cast this off Mox Opal on T1 in PO. What’s the probability of having Lavinia, Opal, land + 2 0cc artifacts for Metalcraft? Is this really viable?
Lotus, 2 Moxen and Petal is four secondary sources (40% chance in opener) of mana. Math that out with a 4 off card (40% of 40%) and you get about an 11% chance of it happening turn 1 if theres 4 copies in your deck.
Add in stuff like repeal and chrome or opal mox and your looking at 20ish percent.
This isn't a bad turn 2 play.
I think the home is in a mentor shell. Maybe a PO mentor deck without the PO's. Put in some extra Snapcaster/Jaces. Maybe a blue angel 2.0 deck.
Could someone with limited, standard or even modern format experience explain to me what legally playable cards Lavinia disrupts in those formats?
As a definitive non-expert, it seems to me that it attempts to give UW control in modern another out to Tron. Maybe some type of storm, but i doubt it.
You'd probably be better off going to a forum that isn't Vintage-centric for that information. Probably try the Reddit post about it: https://www.reddit.com/r/magicTCG/comments/a70upd/rna_lavinia_azorius_renegade/
@spacebalzz It's a chalice @ 0 in more ways than 1. Yes, on turn 1, you stop them playing moxen at all, but even on any turn after that, they can't ramp into spells bigger than the # of lands they have, negating the mana bump. You can still use the mox mana to cast multiple smaller spells, but if you are trying to power out a turn 2 Jace for instance with a land, mox, sol ring into 2nd land, Jace...that gets shut down when Lavinia hits.
Tron (not great)
Living End and other Cascade/As Foretold decks
Fringe hit on Mox Opal and some other affinity cards (and Bauble I guess)
Hits conflagrate out of Dredge if I read it right (They need lands cmc = RXX so would need 5 lands to flash it back for 2)
Pacts outta Amulet Titan
Fringe Storm hate
Stops Terminus outta UW until they have 6 lands.
How'd I do? Miss anything?
I think the main intention was Tron and Living End. That said, maybe someone looked at Vintage and tried to make a hatebeat that hit PO. Unless Wizards speaks out, who knows. I'm firmly in the "this is an alright hatebear and the metagame is fine" camp, so I don't really care.
Just one thing I think was missed here when talking about Lavinia dying to removal. This is a one-sided effect, which means it won't be necessary to play it in a hatebear deck. Which means it will probably be played in some misstep/fow decks. Which means they probably won't be able to counter your counters on their removal. I'm not saying this card will or not break the format, just that removal against her is less efficient due to not being normally able to counter our counters.
Lavinia fits best (as in it is her natural home) in the 5C Human version that goes for control and value (Sensei Top/Dack). However this deck did not see a lot of play since I left the scene. The more aggro control Human decks have seen some play according to mtgo goldfish.
I don't think the classical aggro 5C Human decks would work very well right now. With this I am referring to the Mantis Rider lists without Force of Will.
I think the only 2 versions that can do really well is the tempo oriented list with Force of Will and Null Rod (you all know merfolk.dec and the Humans deck that became popular in modern). The problem is that the Bazaar oriented decks are more efficient in doing this. However, it also have to be noted that a Human deck with Caverns can beat any Bazaar.dec because of Lavinia (soon), Containment Priest and artifact removal. I guess this is a matter of taste. It really comes down to whether you want Cavern or Bazaar against the rest of the meta. Bazaar does get the job done faster and more brutally, but Lavinia might be powerful enough to create an argument.
Like I mentioned the TopDack (what I have been playing since 5 years) is also a strong option. This is the deck with broken plays. With the exception of some blue cards you are in fact a blue control ala grixis/mentor deck. You run full acceleration most of the time. But you run a unique 5C manabase with fetchlands to fuel Top and you benefit from Cavern to cast powerfull Human control cards like Kambal, Grand August 4, Monastery Mentor, Spellseeker, Containment Priest, Notion Thief, Snapcaster, JVP, Noble, Deathrites and so on. Usually you end up with approximately 15 creatures which you have chosen well to fit your play against the meta. Most of the times there are some non humans involved, like Shalai or Falkenrath. Shalai is a very interesting option to deny removal or an Oath activation. You can play with Tinker/TV/Key (key is good anyway because you run 2 or 3 tops) with a Blightsteel in SB. When running a Tinker I usually play Trinket Mage aswell and run 1 crypt main deck with also a Containment Priest main deck. This gives me game against Bazaar in game 1. You can also run Chalice with similar ideas. I mean, the options are endless honestly... And I believe that the biggest problem is occupying the slots with cards that have as much versatility as possible. And Lavinia is going to deliver. The slots that she will be sitting in, will be well spend.
So, I was very skeptical about this card. I was able to buy one on MTGO and I added it to my Paradoxical Mentor deck. This card is nuts.
If you get it down early you just stop all of the hate, no MM no FOW no Moxes. She countered a Hollow One. I'm not sure she is good for the game but she is so lopsided that she changes the game.
I can foreshadow a lot of Pyroblasts and Swords to Plowshares being added to deck in the future.
@moorebrother1 Yeah, it's definitely a blast. I played a little bit in my survival deck, and the issues I had the most were the capability of the deck itself playing it (which isn't the most suited, it's mostly suited to cast leovolds), and one thing I should mention is that karakas is ridiculous against it. Against PO I had 1 chance of playing it (alongside leovold), where it was pretty good (ambush viper kills it, you should watch out for that) without getting bounced by karakas or repeal. What I mean is: it's great when it sticks. And the deck that plays it, should probably take some measures for it to stick (mostly misstep and wasteland). I think UWr was already playing 2 wastes (strip+1wasteland), and that should probably be fine against karas, I guess.
In a UW/UWr shell it should be great with protection and maybe some wastelands for karakas. I think PO is running more than 1 karakas to counter it and leovold, as they should. So that's one thing you should take care of.