MTGO Power 9 Combined JFM Archetype vs Archetype Data

I took the data from the last 3 Power 9s and combined it, looking to see what we could glean about certain matchups. There are several results that contradict commonly held beliefs about the format:

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People need to stop insisting Storm and Oath beat Gush. 😛


last edited by Guest

@ChubbyRain You stop it with your facts! They disagree with my preconceived notion that Gush is not broken. You need 2 islands in play to even cast it....

That's really interesting. Oath decks are only any good against gush because the decks usually contain creatures. I've always felt that Gush itself creates a big advantage by Allowing the decks to out draw and out counter oath in the early game. The one saving grace in game one is that only force of will and spell Pierce counter oath (other cards that could aren't played).
Once game two starts things get even rougher, provided the Gush deck plays the smart sideboard with cage AND priest.
I've tuned my Oath lists and worked very hard at beating mentor and jeskai delver. The thing I have noticed is that the few really strong players I run into (Atog Lord, Diophan, and you to name a few) usually learn my tricks and manage to play smart and it makes things very rough for me.

@ChubbyRain That's an awesome breakdown.

Why does anyone play Big Blue? Those numbers are crazy bad.

@Fred_Bear Some of us just stubbornly want to cast Chandra, Flamecaller.

@ChubbyRain Thanks for putting together. Surprised Big Blue has such a poor oath match- up, I'd have thought with more hard counters it would be easier to disrupt the oath plan. Clearly a lot of shops and gush getting played online.

Thank you.

I'm always surprised when I hear that people like Oath vs. Gush. I think it's a holdover from the Oath vs. Delver matchup, but I feel that Mentor is advantaged in the matchup.

@Fred_Bear said:

@ChubbyRain That's an awesome breakdown.

Why does anyone play Big Blue? Those numbers are crazy bad.

Is the poor results of Big Blue the deck or the players? I will almost always play a big blue deck even if I know I am not going to do well at the event.

Thank you for the information gathering. All this information sure allows us to try to understand Vintage trends and results much easily.

@spook When doing these things, there isn't really a good way to control for player skill (though if someone has a good idea, we would definitely consider it). That said, I think Big Blue is kind of attacked from too many angles. Against Gush, the deck has more mana, a major hurdle in Dack Fayden, and a less efficient draw engine (not to mention randomly getting hosed by Null Rod/Stony Silence). Against Storm, the deck's permission is taxed by the discard/grids, and many cards don't interact with the opponent such as Tinker, Vault/Key, Yawgmoth's Will. Against Shops, the deck has a couple more mana sources but is typically trying to resolve 3 mana instants and sorceries - Thirst is particularly awkward as to get card advantage, you really want to be discarding artifacts but most of your artifacts are mana sources you need to cast spells. Revoker is also typically great against them and Tangle Wire is a lot better when your opponent doesn't make Tokens casting spells. Maybe the Golem restriction allows Big Blue to shift a bit more to combat Gush and Storm but I'm not convinced that will happen.


Where is mentor? Please tell me you are not including mentor under the 'gush' umbrella.

@Khahan I am - most of the decks in the "Gush" umbrella were Mentor decks.

@ChubbyRain said:

@Khahan I am - most of the decks in the "Gush" umbrella were Mentor decks.

You can take gush out of mentor and its still a top tier deck. Think labeling it that way is more than a little misleading. That coupled with your comment underneath your chart makes it seem more like you are creating the facts to fit your biases rather than uses facts to accurately assess your biases.

@Khahan Yes, you can create Mentor decks without Gush but these decks are not prevalent on Magic online. The only ones that come to mind are Vasu's Countertop deck and Tondol's Bob Mentor deck which I think were classified as Blue Control and not Gush. The data says what it says (with limitations - I gave sample sizes and Ryan has gone into the different archetypes breakdowns). Divide it up ad nauseum and you get inconsequential sample sizes that tell you little, but I assure you Ryan and I did not attempt to alter any of the data to "create facts" - we just tried to find a classification system that was practical for the diverse format that is Vintage.

As far as my "biases", I have played an absurd amount of Gush recently, winning a Lotus and a Mox Pearl, along with many 3-1 and 4-0 finishes on Magic Online. Initially, I second-guessed myself when I kept beating Storm and Oath on Gush Mentor, because the prevailing "bias" was that these were unfavorable matchups. The data however corroborates my experience. @CHA1N5 has had a similar experience going from what he said above at least for Oath and he's also had several top finishes with Remora Gush in the midwest. I am curious why you feel differently.

what exactly are you calling "big blue" here?

@Fisken Big Blue (painter, tezz, BUG control, etc.). For the most part, these are Thirst for Knowledge decks.

@ChubbyRain OK thanks wasn't sure if it based on draw or counter package

In addition I would assume it would be fair to make inferences as to the true effect of homogenization of the primary blue engine. For example, the addage that "big blue" by nature grants a superior foundation for the Workshop match up seems to not play out in actuality.

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