@miryafa The best strategy against Survival decks is to win outside the combat step. If your deck always or nearly always wins by attacking with creatures you cast you probably don’t have a favorable matchup. Dredge and Oath can both fight in the combat step, but I don’t think either is really favored by much, of at all.
First Challenge today with Bug Survival List.
Ended up going 5-2 Losing to the mirror @swiftwarkite2 and losing to AtogLord on Dredge. Ran into the dredge match up 3 times and was lucky to come away with at least 2 wins (auto lost first game for all dredge matches).
Dont really know the common boarding strategy for most match ups but ended up siding out something like this
Ran across an interesting hand and would like input on it.
Game 3 on the draw. Decide to keep but unsure if it was correct. i did end up winning the match but just cause i ended up drawing a bazaar which found me mana sources and allowed me to chain vengevines.
@gnargoyles Congrats on the 5-2.
I'm not an expert with the list (I think I have 3 leagues with a 12-3 record and a 2 or 3-0 against dredge) but I have played against Dredge generally.
I think your approach is fine though I would consider leaving in a Force of Will over the other Flusterstorm. I'm assuming the Ravenous Traps are over the Leylines because of cost considerations? The main issue there is that you are more vulnerable to discard and the opponent can overwhelm a single trap so it's really a stopgap measure and you are more committed to comboing off than protecting combo pieces.
To that end, I think you have to mulligan the 7 you have there. You have no pressure and your opponent can sit there until they find a Therapy and then run you over. Sometimes the next card is Bazaar though
@swiftwarkite2 IMO there are not enough blue cards to support force well enough. Sylvan library is a great card, but too greedy to play if you want to have access to force. Maindeck containment priest seems like an unnecessary hedge as well. I would play the 4th misstep for sure. The last slot I have been playing Deep Analysis (in addition to the treasure cruise).
overall, looks pretty good and very close to what has been floating around here. looks like he copied Matt's take on it (chubbyrain)?
Honestly, I copied Vasu's take from earlier posts (Rich cut a Trap for a Priest because he wanted an anti-dredge card against all the players running his Dredge deck...ah, the irony...). Vasu is a teammate of both of us and came in top 16 at Champs with the list. The deck is light on Blue cards and that does affect how some games play out, but Bazaar and Survival do help find Blue cards. I still have had a 75% match win rate with the deck when I've played it on stream and I like it a lot. I don't typically board in Stony Silence against Shops but that could be a difference in play styles. I find the tempo loss of turning off your moxen to be significant as well as the nonbo with Flux to be relevant. Instead, I leave in some of the counters and board in Decays. The Silences are stronger against PO for what it's worth. Just my two cents.
yeah the deck in general is very good. I'm also around 70+% over about 170 matches. i certainly don't think the list is bad, per se, and it's definitely better in most metas than the thalia versions IMO. It's just not quite the 75 i would recommend.
bazaar and survival finding blue cards is good and true, but thats what lets you get away with a blue count of like 17 or 18. for actual blue decks you'd want more like 20 pitchable cards. it's not an exact science, but getting the blue count higher will make your disruption much more reliable, not to mention playing 4 missteps (that card is busted).
i really don't think one priest maindeck will not tilt the dredge matchup in game 1s. if that's the reasoning then that seems suspect. having a plan for the mirror or oath game 1 is better logic, but even then i'd rather have misstep to fight deathrites and cantrips.
I really liked when I had containment priest MD in other lists. But getting the blue count lower on this version is really relevant. TBH I didn't take a close look at the list and spotted only the stony silences issue. Null rod sometimes is awkward which makes me not even get to play it. But shutting off ballista/overseer/hangarback/ravager is usually good enough to make this worth it.
But maybe it's better to not even bring it in and invest in making the deck better against PO with stony over null rod. It's really backbreaking having all the hollow ones and null rods back to hand with hurkyl, but I'm not sure how many repeals are out there nowadays. I'm getting back from vacations and am planning to play it really soon.
But anyways, I think it's valid to play stony over null rod and not bring in against shops, and also what kaluma said in the previous posts. Misstep is an allstar in the blue versions (even without FoW I was playing it as a 4of)
@swiftwarkite2 I'm trying to figure it out. My first attemp is using 1 copy of it instead of the deep analysis. I'm not done with the league, but it feels almost as hard as leovold to cast, as it costs 2 off-color mana (UW). I only drew it twice so far, and in bad spots.
The first time I was with my back against the wall against UR pyromancer and in the other I was against PO with karakas, and it wasn't the right play in neither cases.
Against PO I felt that leovold was way better, as I casted against karakas to get card draw (and the most insane vengevine, entering because when he bounced leovold after I casted it I got 2 more cards in hand and discarded VV + rootwalla), and also I had my opponent with his artifacts locked, and leovold would have locked cheap card draw spells (which lavinia wouldn't).
All that considered, Lavinia sounds pretty good in vintage, and PO w/o karakas (though it already used to play, and with lavinia I think there will be more karakas on PO). I'm not sure it's better than leovold in this shell, and neither if I'd search for it instead of leovold with survival. Maybe, just maybe, it would be better in the bant configuration. I'm still gonna give some try, but I don't think it's really promising.
PS.: Against UR pyro I played Leovold in another game of the match, and I realized it was awesome there in a spot where Lavinia wouldn't have been relevant. I honestly feel like it's a pretty awesome card to play as 2-4 of in a deck that can play it very quickly. We have 3 of the 4 cards that allow it to be played on turn 1 (U/W mox,lotus,time walk), but I don't feel like we can play more copies of it.
@inkfathombiomage There are literally about 3 different decklists, what are you referring to? They have very different results depending on the metagame, if that's also a question you would make, I think the best one is the BUGw (This one) (Or this one)
@swiftwarkite2 Trophy can get any problematic permanent, including sometimes a bazaar, leyline, walkers, fatties, etc. The uncounterable clause is more relevant than the extra land IMO, but I think it's still worth it. I can bring in against more decks, also. Claim I bring in mostly against shops, oath and survival, and it's pretty good also to have a very cheap piece of permanent removal in those matchups. I like the 1 claim/1 trophy split. In regards to mox opal, I don't think it's worth it yet. The low blue count is a huge problem in this deck, and I don't think it's better than the 4th shaman.
This deck is pretty good at changing gears. You usually go for the bazaar/survival hands, but depending on who you are facing, black lotus + vengevine turn 1 is enough having disruption in hand to stop what your opponent is doing.
If you got no cards in hand, bazaar on upkeep to mill yourself for 2 is usually worth doing. Also, if you have bazaar and have only 1 bad card for the turn, wait for the other turn to be able to activate bazaar and chose the best out of the 4 cards you will have at your disposal.
You have force of will and mental misstep, but you should use your forces will a lot of caution. By that I mean, try to analyze if the play you are trying to stop will make you lose the game, and what can happen if you let that one resolve. I say that because there are some counter-heavy decks that (almost) always want to counter good spells. But your forces are usually there for great spells.
Leovold is ridiculous. I've had some cases where it literally won the game by itself. Like, you're behind getting hit and then all of a sudden your opponents can't profitably cast spells. It's awesome against blue decks in general.
Think a lot about clock and disruption. All the time you have to calculate what is your clock against your opponent, and how your actions will change it. This is kinda basic with magic in general, but there are really relevant decisions on that matter with this deck than with any other I've played, so watch out for that. Things like, against PO or other blue combo deck you can deploy leovold and win in 2 turns after this or combo off and win in 1.
This deck is aggro-control-combo. Know your opponents and read the gamestate, so that you know how it's best to act against it.
You usually can't race combo decks. It's usually better to search for more disruptive hands than go with no disruption (leovold/lavinia are disruption). BUT you sometimes win on turn 2. If you have a hand like bazaar, hollow, rootwalue and 2 vengevine, you should obviously go for it. Even though vintage is busted, I think most of the times winning on turn 2 with no disruption is enough.
Also, this deck takes some time and effort until it brings you some results. It took me a lot of time to figure it out and start getting positive EV out of MTGO leagues, as I imagine that took other people here too. But the journey is pretty cool as well.
And most of all: don't get discouraged when you get "vintaged". Variance has a pretty big roll in vintage, and even though your skills will determine in the long run if you are successful, and decisions matter A LOT, sometimes your opponent will have turn 1 mentor with tons of stuff, or big outcomes, trinisphere, recall+snap+lotus+fow+waste+.... But it happens. And vintage has the best public I've seen on MTGO in regards of not getting salty against lucky opponents, because we can't blame people for how lucky they or we are.