I just started playing again recently after picking up the BUG "SurvivaWill" and BUrG Dark confidant list @wfain posted earlier.
Biggest thoughts compared to the old bant ver. I had previously is t1 Deathrite doesn't do as much vs shops as t1 Birds of Paradise/Noble Hierarch on long games. The graveyards just not full enough especially if they have gy nukes like TheAtogLord lists tend to run. T1 forest into BoP then t2 Null Rod Secured many games.
Second was really missed the second Trop in the Bob list; hurt vs shops when I needed wonder to win game 1 but had to pitch my only trop on t1. So I went up to 18 lands mirroring the non bob list I saw.
SB loam seems unwieldy vs shops. Even vs stax I either couldn't cast it or lost the lands trying to feed Deathrite to cast anything if I draw if off the top turns in.
I have never been unhappy having Leyline of the Void vs Rav Trap. Even bringing in 1 or 2 vs Dack decks since I tend to mull a lot brings the "oops I have no answer" sometimes which even just delaying them is enough.
I’ve read the first few posts, so forgive me if this was answered somewhere after that: what is the counter to this strategy? It seems like RIP alone isn’t great, nor Swords/Balance, but a combination of graveyard hate and creature control is needed to beat this deck. Is Jeskai the worst matchup?
@miryafa Yes, it's a combination of those. I think the worst matchups are the combo matchups. Even with the BUG version. With the bug version, jeskai is a favorable matchup, not close to our worst ones (something close to 60/40 match win I'd say). It also depends a lot of the pilot on the other side. Still, not many people know the optimal plays against this deck (even common ones, like when to wasteland bazaar and when to wasteland mana producing lands).
Also, you have to be more specific, as there are lots of differences among survival versions. There are 4 types of viable lists out there.
@miryafa The best strategy against Survival decks is to win outside the combat step. If your deck always or nearly always wins by attacking with creatures you cast you probably don’t have a favorable matchup. Dredge and Oath can both fight in the combat step, but I don’t think either is really favored by much, of at all.
First Challenge today with Bug Survival List.
Ended up going 5-2 Losing to the mirror @swiftwarkite2 and losing to AtogLord on Dredge. Ran into the dredge match up 3 times and was lucky to come away with at least 2 wins (auto lost first game for all dredge matches).
Dont really know the common boarding strategy for most match ups but ended up siding out something like this
Ran across an interesting hand and would like input on it.
Game 3 on the draw. Decide to keep but unsure if it was correct. i did end up winning the match but just cause i ended up drawing a bazaar which found me mana sources and allowed me to chain vengevines.
@gnargoyles Congrats on the 5-2.
I'm not an expert with the list (I think I have 3 leagues with a 12-3 record and a 2 or 3-0 against dredge) but I have played against Dredge generally.
I think your approach is fine though I would consider leaving in a Force of Will over the other Flusterstorm. I'm assuming the Ravenous Traps are over the Leylines because of cost considerations? The main issue there is that you are more vulnerable to discard and the opponent can overwhelm a single trap so it's really a stopgap measure and you are more committed to comboing off than protecting combo pieces.
To that end, I think you have to mulligan the 7 you have there. You have no pressure and your opponent can sit there until they find a Therapy and then run you over. Sometimes the next card is Bazaar though
@swiftwarkite2 IMO there are not enough blue cards to support force well enough. Sylvan library is a great card, but too greedy to play if you want to have access to force. Maindeck containment priest seems like an unnecessary hedge as well. I would play the 4th misstep for sure. The last slot I have been playing Deep Analysis (in addition to the treasure cruise).
overall, looks pretty good and very close to what has been floating around here. looks like he copied Matt's take on it (chubbyrain)?
Honestly, I copied Vasu's take from earlier posts (Rich cut a Trap for a Priest because he wanted an anti-dredge card against all the players running his Dredge deck...ah, the irony...). Vasu is a teammate of both of us and came in top 16 at Champs with the list. The deck is light on Blue cards and that does affect how some games play out, but Bazaar and Survival do help find Blue cards. I still have had a 75% match win rate with the deck when I've played it on stream and I like it a lot. I don't typically board in Stony Silence against Shops but that could be a difference in play styles. I find the tempo loss of turning off your moxen to be significant as well as the nonbo with Flux to be relevant. Instead, I leave in some of the counters and board in Decays. The Silences are stronger against PO for what it's worth. Just my two cents.
yeah the deck in general is very good. I'm also around 70+% over about 170 matches. i certainly don't think the list is bad, per se, and it's definitely better in most metas than the thalia versions IMO. It's just not quite the 75 i would recommend.
bazaar and survival finding blue cards is good and true, but thats what lets you get away with a blue count of like 17 or 18. for actual blue decks you'd want more like 20 pitchable cards. it's not an exact science, but getting the blue count higher will make your disruption much more reliable, not to mention playing 4 missteps (that card is busted).
i really don't think one priest maindeck will not tilt the dredge matchup in game 1s. if that's the reasoning then that seems suspect. having a plan for the mirror or oath game 1 is better logic, but even then i'd rather have misstep to fight deathrites and cantrips.
I really liked when I had containment priest MD in other lists. But getting the blue count lower on this version is really relevant. TBH I didn't take a close look at the list and spotted only the stony silences issue. Null rod sometimes is awkward which makes me not even get to play it. But shutting off ballista/overseer/hangarback/ravager is usually good enough to make this worth it.
But maybe it's better to not even bring it in and invest in making the deck better against PO with stony over null rod. It's really backbreaking having all the hollow ones and null rods back to hand with hurkyl, but I'm not sure how many repeals are out there nowadays. I'm getting back from vacations and am planning to play it really soon.
But anyways, I think it's valid to play stony over null rod and not bring in against shops, and also what kaluma said in the previous posts. Misstep is an allstar in the blue versions (even without FoW I was playing it as a 4of)
@swiftwarkite2 I'm trying to figure it out. My first attemp is using 1 copy of it instead of the deep analysis. I'm not done with the league, but it feels almost as hard as leovold to cast, as it costs 2 off-color mana (UW). I only drew it twice so far, and in bad spots.
The first time I was with my back against the wall against UR pyromancer and in the other I was against PO with karakas, and it wasn't the right play in neither cases.
Against PO I felt that leovold was way better, as I casted against karakas to get card draw (and the most insane vengevine, entering because when he bounced leovold after I casted it I got 2 more cards in hand and discarded VV + rootwalla), and also I had my opponent with his artifacts locked, and leovold would have locked cheap card draw spells (which lavinia wouldn't).
All that considered, Lavinia sounds pretty good in vintage, and PO w/o karakas (though it already used to play, and with lavinia I think there will be more karakas on PO). I'm not sure it's better than leovold in this shell, and neither if I'd search for it instead of leovold with survival. Maybe, just maybe, it would be better in the bant configuration. I'm still gonna give some try, but I don't think it's really promising.
PS.: Against UR pyro I played Leovold in another game of the match, and I realized it was awesome there in a spot where Lavinia wouldn't have been relevant. I honestly feel like it's a pretty awesome card to play as 2-4 of in a deck that can play it very quickly. We have 3 of the 4 cards that allow it to be played on turn 1 (U/W mox,lotus,time walk), but I don't feel like we can play more copies of it.