@rat3de I can't see that being worth it, it's a land that doesn't produce green mana. Our lands should be either bazaar or green mana-producing, otherwise our survivals will get worse and our other spells would be worse to cast. A lot of times we are discarding tons of lands to bazaar, but a lot of times we don't get to chose the lands we will have. And lots of times we keep hands with 1 land and mox(en) to help cast our non-creature magics.
Other thing is that matchups where our shaman or leovold would get countered are already favorable to us (usually some xerox or control deck).
PS.: The only way to cast hollow one with cavern would be with only 1 or 2 activations of survival or paying the full 5, as we are not allowed to pay mana for it if it costs 0.
@rat3de Grindy matchups remind me of lightning bolt. I don't know, seems slow and fragile. But maybe with some more thought on it, it could be made viable, but I don't see it right now.
There's one thing I was wondering... Currently we are using 2 kinds of builds: counters and taxing (which can be divided into the old stony silence or the grudge version). And I honestly think those builds are near optimal for it's purpose. I'm not saying there isn't space for innovation. I just think that innovation probably will have to take other routes.
One of those routes may be something focused on assembling the combo, with resources to make it work earlier, search for it, destroy hate. I think it's way more viable now as we got the catch-all assassin's trophy, as every other card has some weak spot, like nature's claim not destroying jailer and priest, decay not destroying leyline, etc. Maybe get back to the idea of crop rotation? Lately I feel like my recalls aren't getting countered and my missteps are not getting much resistence. Maybe that's time for it to come back. With black we got demonic tutor too, and other really great cards.
I'm not saying I will go to that direction, but for others who have energy to pursuit another build (I'm focusing on getting better at the BUG, maybe I'll try others soon too), I think maybe you should change your approach. Just maybe. And maybe there is another way of building countering/taxing survival decks better than the ones we have, but I'm feeling there will be only small improvements, maybe other approachs to the SB, but that the core is pretty close to ideal.
@gutocmtt I agree with this completely. Bant/Stony build is consistent, has good mana, good plan against shops in the SB, tries to dodge Tinker/Mentor from PO. Grudge build has greedier mana, should dunk on shops, has a reasonable plan against PO, still tries to dodge mentor but can red blast tinkers. BUG versions are weakest vs shops (still not bad though!) and have a delver-y plan against most of the field. This versions feels strongest against PO, Oath, and the mirror.
as far as innovation goes, there is probably some small tuning you can do for each of these, but improvements will be in the margins. The core is definitely very powerful and the flex cards can be adjusted to fight various metas.
if you want to take the deck in a slightly different direction you could build the flex cards to be more proactive and combo oriented. A card that hasn't been mentioned much that is very powerful in conjunction with survival is Lion's Eye Diamond - you can crack LED with a survival activation on the stack for a pile of VV's. Heavy crop rotation builds could also be viable as in a Bazaar focused deck. You could also maybe try for a dredge/survival mashup?
@kaluma I have actually been thinking recently about the Dredge/Survival mashup, I think it would be super interesting but just a bad version of both. It would be super hard I think to trigger VV in dredge because you are not casting the creatures most of the time. Also @wfain I agree that could be cool but I think it may be to slow to function properly.
I played 2 or 3 leagues with deep analysis and I remember seeing it about 6 times. One of them was in a hand that I had to mulligan (due to having it and not having survival/bazaar, but it would lead to the same outcome with TC), about 3 times it was great, and in two of them it made my opponent use his GY hate in response to fetch activation/playing mox to cast it, which is... acceptable. In all of the good situations I had bazaar.
Being realistic, without bazaar, we can barely cast TC. And in games without bazaar where we can cast TC, we probably will already have the 4 mana to cast deep analysis. Didn't feel like an awesome card, but I don't see how that slot gets better. It can make some bad situations worse by drawing into it, but it's also another nice hit for the upkeep bazaar with no cards in hand.
@drstreetmention edited the "original" post -- although going through the decklists right now, Paul Callis who played "Junk Survival" to a 6-2 record played the same 60 as the winning Asia Vintage Champs-- so it really was Bant.
Cleaning up the data and moving people to the right category:
Bant Survival = 65% win rate (8 players)
RGwu Survival = 55% win rate (6 players with 1 or more Ancient Grudge and Chewer)
Other Survival = 75% win rate (1 player: FOW Leovold / Misstep)