I have been very curious about the current meta-game and I looked at the last few challenges and some of the league results and I see a mix of Dredge, Shop, Oath and Paradoxical decks.

I looked at the Waterbury results and honestly, I was shocked. The low to the ground creature decks are a sight to behold. I like them and I never saw them coming. Also, no Oath or Dredge deck placed top 8 and only 1 Shop deck in top 8.

Am I the only one shocked by this result? I have been brewing for SCG in June and I have been trying a lot of decks: Oath, Paradoxical, Stone Blade, Blue Moon, Shops

I am very torn about where to go in this meta. I recently played a mono paradoxical deck for fun and it was fun but I'm not sure it is competitive. I started in a Blue Moon deck that fell apart with the Dominaria release and now I'm confused.

I was never a fan of Mentor or Pyromancer. I never played those decks, but I do play Mentor as a one of now. I really want to do well if I'm going to pay $100 dollars and travel across the country to play at SCG.

The question is what is going to work on paper at SCG?

Everyone knows that Dredge will be 10% of the field. Shops on paper is less present than on MTGO because of cost. Does that put Shops at the 30% mark it should be?

Xerox is now very low to the ground, which could be fun but is there any advantage in the mirror? Does it all come down to skill, luck and variance?

The big control decks are still there but only one broke through at Waterbury, and one in Europe. There were no big blue decks in the last 2 challenges that finished top 8.

I know this is not an exact analysis but it is not meant to be. The point of this thread is to ask what should I play at SCG Con to be competitive and have fun.

@moorebrother1 I suck at actual magic. And I play it profitably (cashing tourneys for more than what I put in). The way I've done that is by doing exactly what you're doing. I try to predict the meta and be a little more prepared for what I'm seeing than it is for me. I think breaking down the %'s of what decks, and even what cards you're likely to see makes a ton of sense. Then play a deck that will let you pick up free-ish wins if you don't blunder too bad and stay out of it's way.

If I thought that Dredge and Shops were going to make up 40-50% of the meta. My inclination would be to run something Paradoxical. My knee-jerk reaction would be to run a paradoxical oath build, since those cards theoretically match up well with what you're likely to see, but that just might be me running back to Oath in general where I'm most comfortable. As a solid tier 3 player, I like a deck that just hands me a win every 4 or 5 games. To answer your question, I think its all skill, if you define skill as staying out of the way of good luck whenever you can. A lot of times in this game you just get run over, but if you make good decisions, you stand to run the other guy folks a little more. Pick off the weakies playing pet decks, pick off the people who blunder, and hope for busted draws against better players... it's really not a bad strategy.

@topical_island I really appreciate the advice. I would rate you considerable higher than a tier 3 player.

I was thinking of a mid-range deck like BUG or Stone Blade but I'm just not sure Shops on paper gets played as much as it does online. I know Dredge is very consistent because most people can borrow them. I know that I'm already loaning out my Bazaars.

My gut is telling that people will be very prepared for Paradoxical which does not make it bad. When you are playing the hunted deck you just have to follow the advice that you just gave. Don't fuck up and play well. And, do not take losing to hard. You just need 6 wins for day 2.

@moorebrother1 Well I'll say this about players. I do think in terms of the calculator that I carry around in my head - third tier. But I like to think, at least, that a lot of other factors go into winning. Like those we mentioned, as well as staying balanced, not tilting, being disciplined, and actual practice. I keep trying to get Brassman to admit he's actually good. I think I'll get there someday. I'm sure he thinks he has a second-rate calculator, and maybe he's right. But setting sobriety aside for a moment, I think he's off the charts on the rest of those things. For those reasons, he's one of my favorite players to watch stream.

I'll also say that when I watch the VSL or things like that, I'm slapping my head thinking that if I played against Montolio running the exact same decklist as him, I might win 30% of those games depending on the deck list. The moral to me is not to run the same deck list.

What makes a good mtg player is really an interesting question.

I’m pretty sure a “big blue” deck just won the challenge this last weekend ?

@hierarchnoble I did listen to it and I listened to their breakdown twice. I will be playing in an event with Kevin on 6/3 at RIW Hobbies for a Time Walk. So, this will be good practice for SCG.