Thanks Matt (and the various people crowdsourcing this!).
Basically, I read this as there 4 decks that make any sense to play:
Anything else is hoping and praying Variance comes your way.
(Just to get an idea--what are the various 4c Dark Confidant Piles classified as? Xerox?)
@neo_altoid Sure, though I think that's a little narrow.
Shops isn't very diverse on MTGO (Overseer is by far the most dominant variant to an almost ubiquitous degree). From the 3/31 challenge:
Paradoxical is...weird? There is some variance with things like Saturn PO with Shops, Thoughtcast PO, PO Storm, and Esper PO but for the most part, the Esper PO has been much more successful.
Xerox is also pretty diverse. There are clear token variants that run Young Pyromancer and Mentor, there are Delver variants, there are the Snapcaster Control variants that I've been playing, and there's a 4 color control DRS deck, basically the Fish deck with the Xerox package over Bobs. The restriction of Mentor, Gush, and Probe have weakened the strength of the Token variant and allowed for more diversity within the archetype.
Dredge is dredge, with most variation due to flex spots in the main and which SB strategy to employ.
I actually think Xerox and Paradoxical are pretty interesting right now, but to each their own.
@moorebrother1 We've been over this... The paper metagame is not monolithic and your FNM level local events are not representative of the format.
Let me start by saying I really appreciate all of the effort that is put into to getting this data.
But, I am very tired of being dismissed about my point that Paper events are showing more innovative decks and more diversity. Just checking this site I get found these results:
http://themanadrain.com/topic/1862/knight-ware-monthly-unsanctioned-vintage-4-15-2018 (12 players)
2nd 2 Card Monte
http://themanadrain.com/topic/1861/14-april-2018-romancing-the-stones-3-27-players-in-austin-tx (27 players)
1st Paradoxical Mentor
2nd White Eldrazi
3rd Dark Petition Storm
4th Two Card Monte
http://themanadrain.com/topic/1802/lcv-2018-march-22-players-barcelona-top16-decklists (22 players)
1st Hydra Gush
I see that the MTGO Challenges are getting 40 - 50 players, which is awesome. I also see a ton of discussion on Vintage Lands and 8 Moon, which you will never see top 8 on MTGO. Is it because the people that play these decks are bad players? The answer is NO. There is a population of players that do not play MTGO but play Magic at a high level. The answer is YES. They may not be as good as the Champs on MTGO but their decks and their innovations are not in the MTGO data.
I am about to sell all of my MTGO cards and get off MTGO. I do not like it, but I do see value in having it and looking at the data. I also see value in looking at what people are playing in Paper.
I also see a ton of discussion on Vintage Lands and 8 Moon, which you will never see top 8 on MTGO.
This is an unfair assessment. I streamed myself playing Vintage Lands on Thursday and ran into the 8 Moon matchup (match starts around 1h05m). I also managed a 5-0 with Vintage Lands (second result down). You are pushing a narrative for two decks that weren't good enough to get paper results yet are showing up on MODO. What exactly are you trying to prove?
We know via replays and published results every deck that's played in the Challenges. Lands has seen play several times and NolaGold (notable legacy Lands pilot) streamed it this past weekend to a 2-3 record. 8 Moon saw play right after Champs and I think cracked a top 8, but left the metagame as it was unable to sustain success. 2CM sees play once in a blue moon, but it does see play. Hydra Gush has seen an uptick in play as well recently. I think you are underestimating how competitive the MTGO challenge metagame is and how quickly it adapts, relative to the paper metagame. The lack of top 8's comes from increased competition rather than being completely absent from the metagame.
It's also ironic that the 1st place Xerox list is a tweaked version of my MTGO list. If you are using it as an example of innovation, that came from MTGO...
@moorebrother1 With that logic some number of paper events need to be discounted as well. I've always been a fan of ignoring Top 8 results of events with five or less Swiss rounds (32 or less players) because of the small amount of skill it takes to get published. That used to be the metric of So Many Insane Plays back before the release of Vintage Master online, and may still be.
@brass-man I'm not trashing anything or anyone. This is a thread about the MTGO challenge metagame for a specific month, not any of the individual paper metagames. I think that is pretty clear and am frustrated that "but paper is different" was brought up. It is in my opinion beyond the scope of this thread (especially since there was already a thread titled "MTGO" that discussed this).