Vintage Challenges - March 2018
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Data from the month of March
Thank you to multiple people for reaching out and helping with data collection (@MikeTheProf @nucleosynth @KingLeovold)
Major props to twitch user k0dydraven who has figured out a way to import round results from mtgo, saving us a lot of time.
Edit: Also props to Ryan @diophan XD
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Thank you, and thank you to the people who helped crowd source this!
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Little fishies leading the field.
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Just one player.
Seems like shops are clearly the dominant deck; most represented and highest win percentage other than a single outlier.
Pretty clear on nearly every metric.
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Thanks Matt (and the various people crowdsourcing this!).
Basically, I read this as there 4 decks that make any sense to play:
Paradoxical
Dredge
Xerox
ShopsAnything else is hoping and praying Variance comes your way.
(Just to get an idea--what are the various 4c Dark Confidant Piles classified as? Xerox?)
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@neo_altoid Read this as MTGO only has 4 decks to play. Playing paper looks very different.
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@neo_altoid Sure, though I think that's a little narrow.
Shops isn't very diverse on MTGO (Overseer is by far the most dominant variant to an almost ubiquitous degree). From the 3/31 challenge:
Paradoxical is...weird? There is some variance with things like Saturn PO with Shops, Thoughtcast PO, PO Storm, and Esper PO but for the most part, the Esper PO has been much more successful.
Xerox is also pretty diverse. There are clear token variants that run Young Pyromancer and Mentor, there are Delver variants, there are the Snapcaster Control variants that I've been playing, and there's a 4 color control DRS deck, basically the Fish deck with the Xerox package over Bobs. The restriction of Mentor, Gush, and Probe have weakened the strength of the Token variant and allowed for more diversity within the archetype.
Dredge is dredge, with most variation due to flex spots in the main and which SB strategy to employ.
I actually think Xerox and Paradoxical are pretty interesting right now, but to each their own.
@moorebrother1 We've been over this... The paper metagame is not monolithic and your FNM level local events are not representative of the format.
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Let me start by saying I really appreciate all of the effort that is put into to getting this data.
But, I am very tired of being dismissed about my point that Paper events are showing more innovative decks and more diversity. Just checking this site I get found these results:
http://themanadrain.com/topic/1862/knight-ware-monthly-unsanctioned-vintage-4-15-2018 (12 players)
1st Xerox
2nd 2 Card Montehttp://themanadrain.com/topic/1861/14-april-2018-romancing-the-stones-3-27-players-in-austin-tx (27 players)
1st Paradoxical Mentor
2nd White Eldrazi
3rd Dark Petition Storm
4th Two Card Montehttp://themanadrain.com/topic/1802/lcv-2018-march-22-players-barcelona-top16-decklists (22 players)
1st Hydra Gush
2nd Dredge
3rd Dredge
4th WizardsI see that the MTGO Challenges are getting 40 - 50 players, which is awesome. I also see a ton of discussion on Vintage Lands and 8 Moon, which you will never see top 8 on MTGO. Is it because the people that play these decks are bad players? The answer is NO. There is a population of players that do not play MTGO but play Magic at a high level. The answer is YES. They may not be as good as the Champs on MTGO but their decks and their innovations are not in the MTGO data.
I am about to sell all of my MTGO cards and get off MTGO. I do not like it, but I do see value in having it and looking at the data. I also see value in looking at what people are playing in Paper.
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We know via replays and published results every deck that's played in the Challenges. Lands has seen play several times and NolaGold (notable legacy Lands pilot) streamed it this past weekend to a 2-3 record. 8 Moon saw play right after Champs and I think cracked a top 8, but left the metagame as it was unable to sustain success. 2CM sees play once in a blue moon, but it does see play. Hydra Gush has seen an uptick in play as well recently. I think you are underestimating how competitive the MTGO challenge metagame is and how quickly it adapts, relative to the paper metagame. The lack of top 8's comes from increased competition rather than being completely absent from the metagame.
It's also ironic that the 1st place Xerox list is a tweaked version of my MTGO list. If you are using it as an example of innovation, that came from MTGO...
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@hierarchnoble I was specific to discuss the Challenges, not the Leagues. There is a lot of diversity in the League.
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I'm a Shops apologist, but those win rates are pretty damning.
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@chubbyrain I was trying to highlight the 2 Card Monte deck, not Xerox. I have only seen it once on MTGO but several times in Paper.
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Please try and find a way to celebrate the interesting decks in your metagame without trashing the decks in someone else's metagame. This goes to both sides of this discussion.
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@brass-man I'm not trashing anything or anyone. This is a thread about the MTGO challenge metagame for a specific month, not any of the individual paper metagames. I think that is pretty clear and am frustrated that "but paper is different" was brought up. It is in my opinion beyond the scope of this thread (especially since there was already a thread titled "MTGO" that discussed this).
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@chubbyrain That is a fair point. I was only replying because you said that you had addressed this. I won’t bring up on these threads anymore. I’m sorry and I appreciate all of your efforts in analyzing this data. Thank you
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@moorebrother1 On the other hand, if you want to make a similar thread and highlight interesting decks from your meta (or paper events you follow), that would be pretty awesome
