@jaco said in North American Eternal Weekend 2017 Metagame Breakdown:
I can tell you from reviewing them line by line for two days that almost all of the non-Workshop Aggro decks are just flat out mis-built for this metagame. A lot of people are misjudging how to combat the current iterations of Workshops, and others are thinking that because they dedicate a card or two like Abrade main deck that's going to get it done (spoiler: it's fucking not).
I think maybe one of the best pieces of information in the expertly compiled graphs above, and perhaps the most telling, is the Win% graph that reveals the highest percentage wins vs shops are Oath (the little engine that could!) and Big Blue, despite their overall representation at the event. The fact that Oath so drastically smashed big blue in those few matchups, and that Big Blue was the "next best hope" against Workshop, yielded perhaps a less surprising top 8 than posts here could allude?
I'm strictly a layman, but, it seems that this data might suggest that as Workshop vs Big Blue is the original vintage grudge match, it isn't surprising that decks that rely on techier, fairer and more nimble lines don't fare as well. This data might suggest that the decks that bring the most broken, bonkers answers, with a more robust mana base are the ones that do the best against shops, which itself originally (I mean, say what you want about modern Shops, but raise your bricked, uselss hand if you ever played against 4x Trinisphere) is a broken, bonkers answer to longstanding problems with Blue. I could be Totally offbase though, so feel free to school me on this. The decklists will be very cool to see.
I think it's noteworthy that there were 76 matches where shops played against Xerox, a recently-nerfed strategy that Shops players have been tuning to beat for a year, getting faster and more aggressive, Shops won 44 of those matches. Not terribly surprising maybe? Did Xerox players simply have a lot more confidence that they had the gas? Others implied here that perhaps they didn't take workshop seriously.
By contrast there were 9 Shops vs Big Blue matches, so maybe the results aren't as statistically relevant (math folk, help!), but if shops were expected to dominate, maindeck Dack Fayden, tinker, Will and Key/Vault all seem to be relevant answers. Yet Thieves and its pals tend to be seen as more marginal strategies.
I will say to @Oestrus 's point that I feel like people handle workshop and dredge differently for psychological reasons mentioned here and in other threads long past. Running into Dredge may suck, but then there is SOME fun in playing the cat and mouse game. Did I pack enough hate? Will there be a transformational sideboard? What is their win condition? Can I stop it? Do I Turn 1 Twister if they mull to 3? Etc. It's like there is a morbid satisfaction in defeating a Dredge player, as if you are righting a wrong in the universe where someone is trying to break the game with loopholes, and you, player of post-board Leyline have set things aright.
For a blue player, a turn one Bazzaar is an eyerolling Well-here-we-go!
A resolved turn one thorn/sphere/chalice/golem can feel backbreaking. "Workshop isn't trying to break the game. It IS the game. You'll never play a spell again, peasant! By the end of this match, 5 Color Stax will seem like a dream of heaven!"