I think its a mulligan. Yes, you can slow them down, but you are counting on getting going before they find an answer when have no back up and need more resources to get started. On top of that since you are on the play - this is all you get until turn 2. they can still go bazaar, activate and dig for answers before you draw your first card. You have no counter to stop their answers to your hate and you need a second mana source before you do anything else other than play draw-go. And as said, they will play draw-go much better than you.
Even if you get that second source, you have how many turns until baby jace is actually online? Then how many turns till 1 of those 5 is worth using for value.
I think I would keep this hand? It definitely doesn't have everything you want, but I'd be afraid to go to 6. Note that 3 Cage, 2 Crypt isn't a TON of hate, and Cage is probably better than Crypt, meaning the chances of getting equal-or-better-hate plus more early game action might be low? I'm a little squeamish when it comes to mulligans though, so hard to say.
There's a pretty straightforward (if labor intensive) way to solve this though. Because this is a turn-0 game state in an un-subtle matchup, it's easy enough to just simulate and rate a ton of 6 card hands. There's probably an app or script online to do it, but you can also do it manually and take notes. It should be boring, but not difficult, to get a hundred 6-card hands and count how often they would be better than this.
My instinct says this hand is a keeper ... but unlike many more complex situations in magic, we don't have to rely on instinct here.
Thanks all for the feedback!
I did keep the hand as I had Cage and Swords and I am also not comfortable with a mulligan having a hand with a mana source and Dredge hate for a random 6. Also, I suspected my opponent was not running a pitch Dredge list (though they were playing Amalgam) as I didn't see a single counter spell. I saw 4/5 of their library game 1.
My next draws were Mentor, Island, Tundra with JVP finding Mystical. I was able to slow down the Hollow Ones with Swords and BabyJace's plus ability before pulling ahead with Mentor. Opponent mulligan'd to zero game 3.
Great discussion, I will post another close hand in the near future!
@brass-man Thank you.
Seeing "derpstep" always makes me cringe. It's ableist, and it isn't clever.
I had to google that. "discrimination against disabled people" You are reaching pretty hard. Keep searching though, there's always someone out there to be shamed by great white knights like you.
While this is a "Keep or Mull?" thread, I'd like to touch on a deck construction point. With the current iteration of Dredge, many builds rely heavily on transformational sideboards. Whether this is Thespian's Stage and Dark Depths or Hollow One and Gurmag Angler, you will need a very real plan against these cards. While Swords to Plowshares deals with the former, Hollow One and Gurmag Angler #2 and beyond are going to crush this hand. My first go-to for any anti-Dredge sideboard right now is Pithing Needle, since shutting off Bazaar also shuts off the Hollow One "mana" and filling your yard for Gurmag Angler. It also turns off Thespian's Stage. It won't do all the work by itself, since Dredge will start discarding to hand size, but it's where I'd start.
I agree with your assessment of sideboard tactics against Dredge. I will test out Pithing Needle as it is much more flexible against other archetypes that Crypt is. Do you have a suggesting on numbers/configuration? 3-4 Needles, 3-4 Cages? Cages do work against Oath so my first thought is 3 Needles, 4 Cages?