@desolutionist said in Cards to unrestrict:
@Smmenen said in Cards to unrestrict:
If PO/Thirst/Gifts decks start rising up, the Mentor/Shops decks will just pack more Stony Silence/Null Rod and other cards like that, and they'll drop back down again, much like more Dredge leads to more GY hate.
First of all, PO and TfK are pretty awful cards. They definitely aren't deserving of being lumped into with Gifts Ungiven. Second, Stony Silence doesn't do enough on its own. I only play 7 artifact mana sources.
You ignored the other part of the sentence, which said "and other cards like that."
Specifically, in the case of combating Gifts decks, Grafdigger's Cage is a custom made hoser.
It's the single best anti-Gifts card ever printed, possibly. Since it stops Recoup effects like Snapcaster/JVP, and Tinker/Will simultaneously. If Gifts starts doing very well, you're going to be facing Cage much more often.
@ChubbyRain said in Cards to unrestrict:
@desolutionist Steve has his narrative. If he believes that Gifts and Thirst decks can be crushed simply by running a couple of Stony Silences or other hate in the SB of Mentor, it allows him to maintain that the format continues to be dominated by two decks and that the Gush restriction didn't accomplish anything.
He's wrong. A well-designed and well-piloted Outcome deck can easily beat Stony Silence. But he didn't listen to me before in chat and I doubt he'll start listening to me now.
Because that's a complete misrepresentation of what I said. I never once said that Stony Silence "simply crushes" PO/Thirst decks.
What I actually said in chat is that the matchup of PO/Thirst decks against Stony/Null Rod was "far from hopeless. It's just fighting against crosswinds or uphill battle/ pick your metaphor."
In other words, PO/Thirst decks can defeat Stony Silence decks, it's just an uphill battle.
There is a huge difference between these three sentences:
Outcomes decks can easily beat Stony Silence
Outcomes decks have an uphill battle against Stony Silence
And Outcome decks get crushed by Stony Silence.
You assert (1), but you claimed I asserted (3). My actual position is (2).
In any case, there is more evidence for (3) than there is (1). The most recent Vintage Challenge results has PO with a 20% win percentage against Mentor (with a very small sample size).
And, perhaps most importantly, despite many of the best players in the field playing PO/Thirst in these challenges and the NYSE, these decks penetration into the top 8 is very poor relative to the skill level and representation in the field. I mean, consider the fact of how good the Drain Tendrils pilots are, and the fact that zero percent of them made Top 8 at the NYSE, while all three of the Jeskai Mentor decks played Stony Silence. The only PO deck that made top 8 was one that, according to the pilot, was built from the list I played at Vintage Champs last year. But zero of the PO/Thirst decks made top 8, despite the firepower their pilots brought into the room.
I'm not trying to dissuade anyone from playing whatever they want, but PO decks are going to perform even worse than their already subpar performance at EW, since EW will have a much greater than usual representation of Null Rod.
Keep up the good work with Gifts, Shawn. Only time and repeat performances will prove people wrong.
I'm not saying that Gifts can't do well, nor that PO/Thirst can't do well. I'm just saying that if those decks start to do better, the metagame will pack more hate for them, like Cage and more Null Rod effects, making them weaker again.
No matter how well you design or plan for these tactics, they undermine your deck's strengths.
Right now, the fact that very few people actually play Gifts is a big advantage for Shawn. I hope Shawn continues to do well, since he seems to enjoy playing Gifts, and I like Gifts as a card. But let's not kid ourselves. It's extremely unlikely that Gifts will become a sustained, tier 1 choice in Vintage over a long period of time without changes to the Banned and Restricted list or new printings. I'm open to being proven wrong, but does anyone really disagree? Do you really think we are going to see Vintage metagames with 20% Gifts decks and 60% win rate over multiple months in this reality anytime this year? I'll take a reasonable wager from anyone who would like to bet against me on that. Just PM me.